China-Japan relations have entered a sharply strained phase as maritime confrontations, diplomatic protests, and public debate over Taiwan are reshaping the regional security landscape. Developments in mid-November – including Chinese Coast Guard activity near the disputed Senkaku Islands, Beijing’s advisory discouraging travel to Japan – reflect the growing fragility of ties between Asia’s two largest economies.
On November 16, a formation of China Coast Guard ships sailed through waters around the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands, a contested territory that China also claims. Beijing described the patrol as “rights protection,” a phrase it commonly uses to justify operations in disputed areas.
The operation came days after Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan – language that could justify the use of collective self-defense and military intervention. Beijing responded with anger, demanding Tokyo retract the remarks and summoning Japan’s ambassador in protest.
The latest Chinese patrol marks one of the more visible demonstrations of Beijing’s displeasure. Japanese officials lodged a fresh diplomatic complaint, calling the Coast Guard’s activities a violation of Japan’s sovereignty.
Further complicating relations, China issued a warning urging its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. Although Beijing did not explicitly link the advisory to political tensions, the move closely followed Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan.
Japan’s government said it has “strongly asked” China to take appropriate steps and clarify its stance, expressing concern that the advisory could damage people-to-people ties at a time when diplomacy is already strained. Some Chinese airlines have since offered fee waivers or refunds for travelers cancelling trips to Japan.
The intensifying standoff comes as Japanese public opinion remains sharply divided over the country’s potential military role in a Taiwan crisis. According to a Kyodo News poll released on November 16, 48.8% of respondents support Japan exercising its right to collective self-defense if China attacks Taiwan, while 44.2% oppose such involvement.
At the same time, 60.4% back Prime Minister Takaichi’s plan to accelerate defense spending to 2% of GDP, reflecting growing concern about regional security even as voters disagree on how far Japan should go in responding to Chinese aggression.
Despite rising tensions with Beijing, Takaichi’s administration continues to enjoy strong domestic support, with approval ratings climbing nearly six points in the latest survey.
The convergence of maritime incidents, diplomatic warnings, and debates over defense policy underscores how delicate the China-Japan relationship has become. China’s actions around the Senkaku Islands, combined with its travel advisory and assertive reactions to Japanese political statements, signal a willingness to apply both hard and soft pressure.
For Japan, finding the right balance between strengthening national security and preventing further deterioration in relations with its largest trading partner remains a significant challenge.
As both nations adopt firmer postures – with China expanding military activities and Japan accelerating defense plans – analysts warn that the risk of miscalculation is rising. Without sustained dialogue, even routine encounters at sea or politically charged comments on Taiwan could push the region closer to crisis.
