As China prepares to unveil its 15th Five-Year Plan, Taiwan is increasingly concerned that Beijing could use the economic blueprint to expand influence across the Taiwan Strait — not only through trade and industry but also over Taiwan’s nearby islands.
Taipei’s officials fear that Beijing may symbolically include Taiwan or its offshore islands, such as Kinmen and Matsu in the upcoming plan. The move would blur the boundary between economic cooperation and political control.
China’s new plan is expected to emphasize high-tech industries, green energy, and infrastructure. Analysts say Beijing could seek to integrate Taiwanese companies into its economic system, offering reasons to attract investment and align industries such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence with Chinese priorities.
Beijing promotes such cooperation as “mutually beneficial,” but Taiwan sees it as part of a long-term strategy to increase dependency and weaken resistance to unite.
Analysts highlight growing concern over Kinmen and Matsu — two Taiwanese-controlled islands located just a few kilometers from China’s coast. Beijing has recently expanded air routes, increased coast-guard patrols, and even proposed building a bridge from Xiamen to Kinmen without consulting Taiwan.
Taipei warns that such moves could be early steps toward asserting de facto control. “If they dare to invade Kinmen, we will become the next Crimea,” one Taiwanese official stated.
Experts note that Beijing’s approach has shifted from direct military confrontation to economic and infrastructural integration. By placing Taiwan’s economy within China’s broader development goals, Beijing aims to make this unity appear both practical and inevitable.
At the same time, residents of Kinmen and Matsu — who depend heavily on trade and tourism from the mainland — face a difficult balance between economic opportunity and national security. The islands are also vulnerable to critical infrastructure threats, including undersea communication cables. Taiwan has detained China-linked vessels suspected of tampering with these cables and stepped up patrols, highlighting concerns about Beijing’s non-military pressure tactics.
Taiwanese leaders have urged Beijing to refrain from including any Taiwanese territories or projects in its domestic policies. Meanwhile, Taiwan continues to strengthen defenses on its outer islands, investing in anti-drone systems and coast-guard patrols.
Analysts warn that even if China’s plan stops short of explicit annexation language, any reference to cross-Strait “integration zones” or infrastructure links could heighten tensions and challenge Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Beijing’s next five-year plan may shape more than China’s economic future — it could redefine the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait. Through a mix of economic encouragement and strategic planning, China appears intent on binding Taiwan closer to their policy one policy step at a time.
