With nearly 700 million people, Southeast Asia has found itself at the epicenter of a growing geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China. While the region’s leaders have traditionally sought to avoid choosing sides, shifts in the global order, particularly after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, have placed them squarely in the midst of this competition. Over the past 30 years, many countries have gravitated away from the United States and towards China, significantly harming US ambitions in Asia. The arrival of the Donald Trump administration radically altered US-China relations. Washington perceived Beijing as a strategic threat, a view reflected in the administration’s policies.
Trade agreements signed by the US in Asia, including with Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan, are increasing pressure on China. Analysts state that Beijing is meticulously scrutinizing the minute details of bilateral agreements to prevent its economic interests from being undermined. While, the Trump administration’s tariffs, such as “Liberation Day” tariffs, cause misunderstanding and frustration among allies, the US remains an integral economic partner for countries in the region.
It’s noteworthy that the meeting between the Presidents of the United States and the Philippines, Donald Trump and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took place on Tuesday, July 22, 2025, at the White House. The main topic of this meeting was a trade agreement, under which the U.S. would reduce tariffs for the Philippines to 19%, while in return, the Philippine market would be open for American goods. Discussions also touched upon relations with China, during which Marcos stated that the U.S. is their most important and main partner and added that concerning China, the Philippines would exercise its right to self-defense, which underscores their independent foreign policy.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s April visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, against the backdrop of US tariffs, aimed to strengthen regional ties. During these visits, numerous agreements were signed in the trade, infrastructure, and technology sectors, an effort by China to present itself as a stable and long-term partner. Despite these diplomatic successes, China’s strategy has certain limitations, including financial caution and regional skepticism due to tensions in the South China Sea. A 2024 survey by the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute revealed that while Southeast Asians view China as the most influential economic and strategic power in the region, they trust Japan, the US, and the EU more than China.
Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia strive to maintain strategic autonomy and avoid entanglement in superpower rivalries. Vietnam, for example, firmly adheres to a non-aligned foreign policy to preserve economic stability. Cambodia, on the other hand, employs a “hedging” strategy to leverage China’s support while simultaneously protecting its own interests. Although the region is clearly leaning towards China, alliance patterns are not immutable, and countries can shift their orientation quite rapidly. This underscores the fact that Beijing still has much work to do to gain the trust of regional states and alleviate their concerns.
