At the end of this month, the 2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit is scheduled to be held in South Korea, where leaders of member countries will gather to discuss global economic issues. Amid the complicated relations and trade war between China and the U.S., the President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced he hopes to meet with Xi and reach a “fantastic deal” with China. He offered to lower tariffs but also noted that China should make concessions too, including buying U.S.-produced soybeans and ending restrictions on rare earth minerals. These two factors—China halting U.S. soybeans imports and its near-monopoly on rare earth minerals—are powerful tools for China and could put significant pressure on Trump to lower tariffs and attempt to strike a deal with Beijing.
For U.S. farmers, it is nearly impossible to find a replacement for the enormous Chinese demand, as China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans and the largest customer of U.S. farmers. For example, last year China exported half of the U.S.-produced soybeans, which amounts to $12.6 billion. But this year, as a retaliation to U.S.-imposed tariffs, Chinese purchase of soybeans has declined significantly, which dramatically affected U.S farmers, who in turn lobby Trump to change his policies toward China. On the other hand, while American farmers are desperate, China has found an alternative supplier – Brazil. In August, China purchased $ 4.7 billion in soybeans from Brazil, which, compared to the U.S supply, is around fifty times larger. This situation puts China in an advantageous position – it pressures the U.S agricultural sector and also deepens “south-south cooperation”.
Besides the soybean problem, which may only affect U.S farmers, there’s the issue of rare earth minerals, which is a huge problem not only for the U.S but for the global economy and manufacturing of a wide range of electronics, from iPhones to electric cars and etc. China controls more than 90% of the global output of refined rare earths. So, the upcoming summit and talks between the U.S and China are an important event for the global economy. This trade war has damaged both countries and their economies, and the deal between them will indeed be “fantastic”, as Trump said, but considering Trump’s unpredictable decisions, it’s hard to say what will actually happen.
