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How Australia Responds to Decreasing Chinese Exports

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced that if his party wins the upcoming election, it will spend 1.2 billion Australian dollars (£580 million) to create a strategic reserve of critical minerals. This promise follows China’s decision to impose export restrictions on seven rare earth elements that are essential for the production of electric vehicles, fighter jets, and robots. Although China’s restrictions will affect all countries, the move is widely seen as a response to tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Rare earths refer to 17 chemical elements that are called “rare” not because they are scarce, but because they are difficult to extract and process. Elements such as samarium and terbium are essential for manufacturing technologies that will shape the future global market, from electric vehicles to high-tech weapons systems. Both China and Australia have rare earth deposits, but China controls about 90% of global processing, the stage that prepares minerals for use in technology. This distribution of resources gives China leverage over supply chains.

Experts point out that Washington’s inability to secure a reliable supply of rare earths has made the mineral issue one of the Trump administration’s main focuses, especially amid growing U.S.-China diplomatic tensions. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, between 2019 and 2022, 75% of the rare earths imported into the U.S. came from China. Notably, the United States and Ukraine have signed an “economic partnership agreement” that will give Washington access to Kyiv’s mineral resources in exchange for establishing an investment fund in Ukraine.

Philip Kirchlechner, director of Iron Ore Research, told the BBC that Western countries were late to recognize the importance of rare earths. This allowed China to quickly establish a monopoly over processing. In the expert’s view, increasing Australian reserves won’t matter much if China still controls the processing stage. Lithium, which is not classified as a rare earth but is essential for manufacturing batteries for electric vehicles and solar panels, is a good example. Australia produces 33% of the world’s lithium but processes only a small portion of it and exports the rest. China, meanwhile, mines 23% of the world’s lithium but processes 57% of it, according to the International Energy Agency.

Despite initiatives to boost Australia’s mining and processing capabilities, according to Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, the country will likely remain dependent on Chinese processing at least until 2026. In articles published in Australian media, China’s ambassador in Canberra criticized Washington’s global trade policy and called on Australia to “join” Beijing. Australia quickly responded negatively to China’s appeal.

Australia is also leveraging its natural resources in negotiations with the Trump administration. For example, exports of several types of critical minerals have been exempted from the 10% tariff imposed on most Australian products.

Experts believe that Albanese’s plan is mainly aimed at protecting Australia and its allies from potential threats from China. Natixis chief economist Alicia García-Herrero told the BBC that Albanese’s strategy is “more sophisticated” compared to previous plans because it allows the country to supply its resources to international markets during times of economic tension.

In the context of reduced Chinese exports, García-Herrero said Australia will sell more minerals on the market, helping to ease price increases and weaken China’s influence. However, she also noted that Australia will not be able to fully replace China.

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Senate Confirms China Critic David Perdue as New US Ambassador to Beijing

The US Senate on Tuesday confirmed longtime China critic David Perdue as the next US ambassador to China, a crucial position at a time of heightened tensions and an ongoing tariff battle between the world’s two largest economies. Perdue, 75, a former US senator from Georgia and seasoned business executive, was approved in a 67-29 vote with some bipartisan support. Known for viewing China as a global threat, Perdue now joins President Donald Trump’s China team, which is already dominated by hardliners.

During his April confirmation hearing, Perdue emphasized that the US must take a “nuanced, non-partisan and strategic” approach to China, describing the bilateral relationship as “the most consequential diplomatic challenge of the 21st century.” Still, much of the hearing revisited his long-held view that Beijing is engaging in “a new kind of war” against the US and poses a threat to the “current world order.”

Following his confirmation, China’s foreign ministry on Wednesday restated its “consistent and clear” position on China-US relations and trade. Previously, the ministry had declared China would “fight to the end” but kept the “door open” for dialogue, provided it is based on “equality, mutual respect, and reciprocity.”

When nominating Perdue in December, Trump described him as “instrumental” to preserving peace and fostering “a productive working relationship” with Chinese leaders. Trump also called Perdue “a loyal supporter and friend” in a social media post.

A 2019 report from the Beijing-based Grandview Institution labeled Perdue “anti-China” after he took on the key maritime role, warning that his appointment reflected a “growing trend of maritime containment against China that cannot be overlooked.” The report described him as “a proponent and practitioner” of the “China threat” theory, “a prominent hawkish representative” on defense and diplomacy, and “a sharp-minded businessman with a knack for crisis management.”

Beyond trade disputes, Washington and Beijing are also clashing over China’s military buildup and its pressure on Taiwan and US allies in the Indo-Pacific. While most nations, including the US, do not officially recognize Taiwan as independent, Washington opposes any attempt to seize the island by force and continues to supply it with weapons.

At his hearing, Perdue affirmed the US commitment to the one-China policy and vowed that one of his main goals as ambassador would be to tackle China’s export of precursor chemicals to Mexico, which cartels use to manufacture fentanyl for smuggling into the US.

In a September article in the Washington Examiner, a US conservative publication, Perdue argued that China is waging a “New War” against the US — an “existential” conflict beyond conventional warfare or Cold War rhetoric, one that will “determine whether the free world will … remain free.” He also labeled Chinese President Xi Jinping a “modern-day emperor” and accused China of seeking to “destroy capitalism and democracy.”

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China’s Global Influence: Maneuvers Near the Philippines

China is actively expanding its global influence by showcasing military strength on the one hand, and deepening cooperation with other countries on the other. Near the Philippine coast in the South China Sea, its large warship Shandong is conducting eye-catching maneuvers, seen as a direct response to rising tensions with the United States and the Philippines. This strategy—demonstrating maritime power—reflects China’s attempt to reinforce its global standing, especially amid escalating tensions with the Philippines.

Off the northern coast of the Philippines, Shandong, China’s large aircraft carrier, accompanied by six smaller warships and two support vessels, passed twice through the Luzon Strait—an important maritime passage—between April 23 and 27. These maneuvers coincided with the Balikatan 2025 military exercises between the U.S. and the Philippines, involving 17,000 troops and rehearsing scenarios of potential conflict with China. Shandong’s aircraft carried out 130 take-offs and landings, clearly demonstrating China’s naval capabilities. This move was a response to the U.S. deployment of NMESIS in the Philippines, a modern missile system capable of striking ships up to 185 km away, perceived by China as an effort to limit its freedom of movement at sea.

Tensions in the South China Sea escalated further when China’s coast guard took control of the Tiexian Reef (also known as Sandy Cay) on April 26—a reef the Philippines claims as its territory. This small land formation is located near a Philippine military base on Thitu Island, deepening the disagreement. Meanwhile, during the Balikatan drills, the Philippines and the U.S. tested MADIS and SPYDER air defense systems, which successfully shot down drones. China’s Foreign Ministry declared that such exercises threaten regional peace, showing Beijing’s growing concern over closer U.S.-Philippine military cooperation. China’s actions aim to maintain its influence over regional waters

The Shandong maneuvers near Philippine shores were a response to the U.S. deployment of advanced weapons on Batanes Islands, capable of striking ships within a 185-km range. These weapons are seen as limiting China’s freedom to operate between the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. The move signals to China that the Philippines and the U.S. are prepared to counter its influence. Shandong’s operations, observed 789 km from Japan’s Miyako Island, underscore China’s ability to carry out rapid missions in distant waters. While increasing the risk of confrontation near the Philippines, China’s active military presence also shows its readiness to resist strategic pressure from the U.S. and its allies.

The Shandong group, deployed on April 21 after the start of Balikatan drills, was accompanied by the advanced destroyer Yan’an and the intelligence vessel Tianguanxing, which monitors adversary activities. These maneuvers responded to U.S. arms deployments in the Luzon Strait that threaten ships and restrict China’s maritime routes, especially those critical for energy supplies and military operations. With these steps, China seeks to protect freedom of navigation and uphold its influence. These developments occur against the backdrop of increased militarization of the South China Sea, where China continues to strengthen its artificial islands. The deployment of the Chinese naval group reveals its strategic priority—regional dominance—but at the cost of raising the risk of clashes, especially if U.S.-Philippine military cooperation continues.

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Washington Demands ‘Substantial Compromises’ from Beijing

China’s commerce minister said U.S. tariffs have hit China Airlines and Boeing (BA.N) hard, and he hopes Washington will listen to the companies’ demands and concerns and work to create a stable trading environment.

U.S. planemaker Boeing has flown three 737 MAX jets based in China, which were meant to deliver goods to Chinese customers, back to the United States. Boeing said last week that several of its customers in China had indicated they would not accept new planes because of the tariffs, prompting the company to sell dozens of planes.

The Commerce Ministry stated that the U.S. tariffs had disrupted global trade chains, air transport, and investment activities and “significantly harmed Chinese airlines and Boeing.”

Washington has imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports this year, bringing the effective tariff rate to about 156%. China is now facing tariffs of up to 245%, according to figures released by the White House. Meanwhile, Beijing has imposed new tariffs on American goods of up to 125%, on top of the tariffs already in place.

On April 25, US President Donald Trump tightened tariffs on China, saying he would not lift them unless Beijing offered “something substantial” in return. He also said he was unlikely to offer other countries another 90-day pause in tariffs.

Earlier, on April 23, the president of the United States told reporters that his administration would reach a “fair deal” with China and that negotiations with countries were going very well. Trump also noted that the time when other countries were lying to America and treating it unfairly is over; now, these countries want to be included and participate in the negotiations, including China and the European Union.

China responded to Trump’s speech three days later, once again denying that any type of negotiations with the United States regarding tariffs were underway, and stating that there had been no discussion of the issue between Xi Jinping and Trump.

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New Chinese Military Capabilities

According to an article published on April 20th by the South China Morning Post, Chinese scientists detonated a Hydrogen-based explosive device during a controlled field test. The bomb caused devastating chemical chain reactions despite the fact that it did not use any nuclear materials and contained Magnesium hydride.

The 2kg bomb created a 1000 degrees Celsius fireball that lasted for more than 2 seconds. Notably, its duration exceeded the duration of a TNT bomb explosion 15 times.

Hydrogen gas explosions ignite with minimal ignition energy, have a broad explosion range, and unleash flames that race outward rapidly.

According to the researchers, the Hydrogen bomb is a big step forward in Chinese military capabilities, since it can project heat, as well as cause precision-target destruction.

It is also important that the production of Magnesium Hybrid was limited to laboratories for a long time. However, with the opening of a high-capacity plant in Shaanxi province the capability rose to producing 150 tons annually.

Apart from the Hydrogen bomb, the Chinese cabinet approved of a nuclear plant project in eastern Zhejiang. According to the experts, new Chinese projects are aimed at causing shock and fear in Taiwan, which is also supported by the fact that on April 22nd, 11 Chinese aircraft, six Chinese naval vessels and four official ships were detected near Taiwan. This military equipment crossed the northern, southwestern and eastern Air Defense Identification Zones of Taiwan.

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China, Russia expressed support for Iran’s nuclear program during a joint meeting

China, Russia, and Iran held a joint meeting with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to discuss Iran’s nuclear program, according to a report from Chinese state news agency Xinhua on Friday.

The meeting, which took place on Thursday, included IAEA representatives and the agency’s director general. It followed a visit to Beijing earlier this week by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.

According to Xinhua, the discussions focused on the IAEA’s role in advancing a political and diplomatic resolution to the Iranian nuclear issue. China also voiced its support for Iran’s engagement in dialogue with all relevant parties, including the United States.

In a previous trilateral meeting held in Beijing on 14th April, China and Russia reaffirmed their support for Iran’s peaceful nuclear ambitions, following a joint statement issued at the conclusion of the talks. According to the Tehran Times, the two nations praised Iran’s continued commitment to ensuring its nuclear program remains exclusively for peaceful purposes and welcomed Tehran’s ongoing cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The statement also emphasized the importance of respecting Iran’s right to develop and utilize nuclear energy for civilian use, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The three countries underscored that all nations must avoid actions that could undermine the IAEA’s technical, objective, and impartial work.

China, in particular, has continuously expressed its support for dialogue between Iran and the United States. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a conversation with his Iranian counterpart, reiterated Beijing’s opposition to the use of force and what it called “illegal” unilateral sanctions. U.S. has recently sanctioned certain Chinese refiners for purchasing Iranian oil.

Earlier this week, on the podcast Secretary of State Marco Rubio has outlined a potential compromise. Speaking on a podcast earlier this week, Rubio indicated that the U.S. is open to Iran maintaining a civilian nuclear program—on the condition that it relies solely on imported nuclear fuel. This would allow Iran to operate nuclear reactors for power generation and other civilian uses, while denying it the capability to enrich uranium domestically—effectively blocking a potential path to nuclear weapons.

“This is similar to what many other countries do,” Rubio said. “If Iran wants a civil nuclear program, they can have one. But they must import enriched material.”

Rubio’s position marks a step back from earlier demands by National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, who had insisted on the complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

The USA and Iran will resume nuclear talks on Saturday.

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Chinese drones in Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested that Moscow has stolen drone technology from China, something he says China may not have known about. Zelensky has also said that Chinese citizens are working at drone manufacturing facilities in Russia.

Zelensky made the statement at a press conference in Kyiv on April 23. Days before that, he had directly accused Beijing of providing Moscow with military aid and weapons and ammunition.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister told reporters that he had summoned Chinese Ambassador Ma Shengkun and expressed serious concerns about China’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Zelensky said he had already instructed officials to provide the Chinese government with the results of the investigation through official channels. He separately asked Ukraine’s security service to provide Beijing with information about Chinese workers at a drone factory.

“We believe that Russia may have stolen or made an agreement with these Chinese citizens to transfer technology without the Chinese government knowing about it,” the Ukrainian president said.

Earlier this month, Zelensky said that Russia was using social media to force Chinese citizens to join the armed conflict, and that Beijing officials had information about it. Zelensky also said that Ukraine was trying to investigate whether China was giving recruitment instructions.

China’s foreign minister rejected Ukraine’s “baseless accusations and political manipulations,” reaffirmed its support for peace efforts in Ukraine, and called on the parties to refrain from “irresponsible remarks.”

Interestingly, the day after China’s response, Sinopec, a leading Asian company, resumed purchases of Russian oil after a 1-month pause. The pause was caused by fears of sanctions imposed by the United States on Russian products. Due to tariffs imposed on Russian products by the Biden administration, Russian oil exports have decreased to China and India, and Chinese state-owned oil companies Sinopec and Zhenhua Oil have stopped purchasing Russian oil. Sinopec has not yet answered the question of why the Chinese company resumed purchases of Russian oil.

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Azerbaijan and China Strengthen Strategic Partnership

On April 23, 2025, in Beijing, during a state visit by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan and China signed a “Joint Statement on the Establishment of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.” This historic step highlights the two countries’ aspirations to deepen cooperation in the fields of economy, infrastructure, security, and culture. China supports Azerbaijan’s swift accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its peace agenda, positioning Azerbaijan as a strategic partner in the global trade system. This decision also responds to Western pressure regarding Azerbaijan’s hosting of COP29, clearly demonstrating that Azerbaijan increasingly relies on China as a trusted partner.

During the visit, Aliyev and Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed unwavering support for each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Azerbaijan reaffirmed its support for the “One China” principle, while China endorsed Azerbaijan’s peaceful initiatives. Numerous agreements were signed, including those on visa exemptions, humanitarian demining cooperation, legal assistance in criminal matters, and economic cooperation, all aimed at strengthening political trust between the two nations.

Economic cooperation was a key focus of the visit. In 2024, bilateral trade grew by 20.7%, reaching $3.7 billion, making China Azerbaijan’s top export partner. China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” aligns with Azerbaijan’s “Silk Road Revival” strategy, particularly in the development of the Trans-Caspian trade route, where cargo volume increased by 86% to 378,000 tons in 2024. The two sides plan to negotiate a free trade agreement, which will further deepen economic cooperation.

During the visit, more than 20 agreements were signed, covering science, technology, culture, and tourism. For instance, a cultural cooperation protocol for 2025–2029, memoranda on digital economy and green development, and an agreement between the mayors of Nakhchivan and China’s Urumqi to establish sister city relations, which will promote local-level cooperation. These efforts show that both countries are striving to strengthen not only economic but also cultural and educational ties, for example, through student exchange programs and the development of Confucius Institutes in Azerbaijan, where Chinese language and culture are taught.

Aliyev’s visit and the signed agreements are part of Azerbaijan’s geopolitical strategy, which aims to balance Western influence through cooperation with China and the Global South. China’s support for the successful hosting of COP29 and Azerbaijan’s leadership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) underscores Beijing’s growing interest in viewing Azerbaijan not only as a logistical hub but also as a strategic partner. However, the success of this partnership will depend on the ability of both sides to balance their interests amid global tensions.

Author: Sandro Kapanadze

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China Set to Receive More Sanctioned Russian Oil in April

Russia is ramping up its Arctic oil exports to China this month, offering significant discounts and utilizing tankers not targeted by U.S. sanctions to sidestep recent trade restrictions, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa and insights from two Russian oil traders. Russian producers Lukoil and Gazprom Neft did not immediately respond to Reuters’ inquiries regarding the shipments.

Roughly 10% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports stem from its Arctic oil trade, which faced disruption following the U.S. sanctions imposed in January. The sanctions targeted almost all vessels transporting key Arctic grades such as ARCO, Novy Port, and Varandey, along with state-run producer Gazprom Neft.

To navigate around these restrictions, traders have been using ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in international waters near Singapore and Malaysia. Once the oil is loaded onto Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) that aren’t subject to sanctions, the cargoes continue their journey to China, Vortexa senior analyst Emma Li and traders explained.

Li noted that at least 4 million barrels of Arctic crude were transferred via STS last week alone, and another 16 million barrels are expected to arrive or are already positioned in the South China Sea throughout April. While China’s appetite for Arctic oil appears to be on the rebound due to the available supply, the actual volume offloaded will depend on both the logistical flow and the purchasing decisions of Chinese refiners, Li added.

According to Vortexa, China imported around 25,000 barrels per day of Arctic crude in March. One trader highlighted that these ship-to-ship operations are essential, as many Chinese refiners prefer cargoes delivered on vessels free from sanctions to avoid complications or the risk of secondary sanctions, and some are even prepared to pay a premium for such cargoes.

For instance, data from Kpler shows that the non-sanctioned VLCC Atila took on approximately 2.07 million barrels of ARCO crude from two sanctioned ships in March near Singapore. The oil was later discharged at Dongying port in China’s Shandong province earlier this month. Notably, the Atila had previously conducted similar STS operations involving Iranian crude.

Arctic oil grades are extracted from Russia’s remote northern regions, where severe weather conditions and logistical challenges require massive investments for development. Light Varandey crude is produced by Lukoil, while Gazprom Neft handles light Novy Port and heavier ARCO grades.

Currently, the journey from Russia to China takes about two months, as the cargoes are routed via the Suez Canal. The added leg of STS transfers drives up transportation costs, traders said. The alternative — the shorter North Sea Route (NSR) — remains closed until July.

Arctic crude, once sold at a premium over Brent, is now being offered at a discount, traders reported.

India, once the leading buyer of Arctic crude, has scaled back imports due to the sanctions. Most of the Arctic oil destined for India, mainly Varandey, supplied by Litasco, has faced disruptions. Indian authorities also recently blocked a ship from transferring Russian oil to another vessel at sea.

Other destinations for Russian Arctic oil include Syria, which began receiving shipments earlier this year, and Myanmar.

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China’s New Trade Representative

China, amid an escalating trade war with the United States, took a significant strategic step on Wednesday by appointing Li Chenggang as its new international trade representative. This change underscores Beijing’s ambition to strengthen its negotiating position to ease the pressure from tariffs that have posed significant challenges to global markets. China’s decision also reflects its efforts to maintain influence in the global trade system, particularly within the World Trade Organization (WTO), where it presents itself as a source of stability. Li Chenggang’s appointment is not only a tactical but also a symbolic move, reflecting China’s dual strategy: addressing U.S. economic pressure on the one hand while reinforcing its position as a leader in the global trade system on the other.

Li Chenggang, 58, replaces Wang Shouwen, 59, who had been China’s trade representative since 2018 and played a key role in negotiating the 2020 China-U.S. trade agreement. No official reason for the change has been disclosed, but analysts suggest it may be Beijing’s attempt to break through in negotiations stalled by heightened tensions. Li’s experience in Geneva, where he built ties with international partners, including U.S. representatives, makes him an ideal candidate for this goal.

Li Chenggang is a highly qualified diplomat who served as China’s WTO ambassador since February 2021, where he vocally criticized U.S. tariff policies, including at the WTO General Council meeting in February, stating that the U.S. “unilaterally and arbitrarily violates WTO rules.” His decades of experience in the Ministry of Commerce, including participation in China’s WTO accession negotiations and work at the UN office in Geneva, provide a strong foundation for managing complex trade disputes.

China’s economy grew by 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing analysts’ expectations of 5.1%, driven by strong exports and retail sales. However, Sheng Laiyun, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, warned that U.S. tariffs exert “some pressure” on exports, a key driver of China’s economy. In response, Beijing is working to boost domestic consumption and expand cooperation with Europe and the Global South, though replacing U.S. consumers remains challenging amid declining domestic consumption and a real estate crisis. Li Chenggang’s support for free trade could be a double-edged sword: it bolsters China’s image as a defender of global trade but may complicate negotiations with the Trump administration, which pursues strict protectionist policies. Thus, Li’s success will depend on his ability to balance China’s firm stance with openness to negotiations to avoid further escalation of the trade war.

President Xi Jinping actively seeks to position China as a source of “stability and certainty” in global free trade, particularly in Southeast Asia, where countering U.S. influence is a key priority. His recent visits to Vietnam and Malaysia, where discussions focused on the China-ASEAN free trade agreement with its 10 member states, underscore China’s efforts to strengthen regional partnerships and bypass trade organizations dominated by the U.S. and the West. These moves also respond to the U.S. imposing 46% tariffs on Vietnam, which were later suspended for a 90-day negotiation period.

Author: Sandro Kapanadze

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