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Meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea

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Following the meeting held on October 30, Donald Trump announced that he would sign a trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping “very soon.” The meeting also covered the topic of reducing tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump told reporters that they agreed to lower the tariff on fentanyl imports from 20% to 10%. The level of tariffs imposed on Chinese products also dropped from 57% to 47%. It is noteworthy that the parties did not discuss Taiwan during the meeting.

Despite the fact that a trade deal was not signed after the meeting, a significant consensus on economic issues was reached during the meeting, including the resolution of disagreements related to rare earths. China announced that export control measures on critical minerals should be suspended for one year. In exchange for the tariff reductions, the Chinese side will purchase an “enormous amount” of American soybeans, which is a step forward for the US, as farmers were losing billions of dollars from crop sales to China due to trade disputes.

President Xi emphasized that “dialogue is better than confrontation.“ He called for deepening communication and named potential areas for cooperation:

  • Combating illegal immigration and telecommunication fraud
  • Money laundering
  • Artificial intelligence (AI)
  • Response to infectious diseases

The leaders also discussed the issue of Ukraine during the meeting. Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to cooperate to facilitate the end of the conflict.

The leaders agreed that they share a joint responsibility to address the complex problems facing the world.

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China’s Newest Refinery Ramps Up Russian Oil Imports Amid Sanctions

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China’s newly authorized Shandong Yulong Petrochemical refinery is dramatically increasing its imports of Russian crude oil in response to supply disruptions caused by Western sanctions. The refinery, with a processing capacity of 400,000 barrels per day, is expected to import 370,000–405,000 barrels of Russian crude in November – nearly double its previous intake from Russia. 

The increase in Russian crude comes after shipments from Middle Eastern and Canadian suppliers were canceled due to sanctions imposed by the UK and the EU in October 2025. 

The surge in imports reflects a broader trend among Chinese refiners seeking alternative sources in an unstable global energy market. Analysts note that while this strategy guarantees a steady feedstock supply and cost advantages, it also exposes Yulong to potential regulatory and geopolitical risks due to ongoing sanctions on Russian energy exports.

The increased Russian oil purchases underscore China’s determination to secure energy supplies among international uncertainty. For Russia, the arrangement provides a reliable outlet for its crude. The deal also highlights the growing energy dependence between China and Russia, with long-term implications for Eurasian energy trade flows.

The move may influence regional crude pricing, as Yulong’s increased demand for Russian grades could tighten supply elsewhere in Asia. Chinese refiners are reportedly taking advantage of favorable pricing for Russian barrels, allowing them to maintain refining margins even as global oil markets remain volatile.

While the arrangement ensures Yulong’s short-term operational stability, analysts caution that reliance on Russian barrels could create vulnerabilities if sanctions expand or shipping routes are disrupted.

Author: Nia Kokhreidze 

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China signed an expanded version of a free trade agreement with ASEAN

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On October 28, China signed an expanded version of a free trade agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Malaysia, during the ASEAN summit. This association includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam. It constitutes a regional grouping of 11 countries in Southeast Asia aiming to promote economic and security cooperation among them.

The framework agreement between China and ASEAN was first signed in 2002, laying the foundation for the creation of the ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), which came into force in 2010. This trade area covers a market of approximately 2 billion people and substantially lowers tariff barriers between member states and China. Through this trade area, China–ASEAN trade relations have increased from $235.5 billion in 2010 to nearly $1 trillion last year.

China’s representative during the 2025 agreement negotiations was China’s Premier Li Qiang, who described this agreement as an alternative to Donald Trump’s protectionist policies and increasing trade barriers. He said during his speech that “Pursuing confrontation instead of solidarity brings no benefit”, “Unilateralism and protectionism have seriously impacted the global economic and trade order, while external forces are increasing their interference in the region, many countries have been unreasonably subjected to high tariffs”, “by relying on each other and coordinating our actions, we can safeguard our legitimate rights and interests.” He also addressed ASEAN members as “good neighbors and good brothers that are close in geography, culture and sentiment.”

However, at the same time, China asserts its control over nearly the entire South China Sea and has competing claims over it with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. The situation is more complex and strained between the Philippines and China. In 2013, the Philippines filed a case against China with the Permanent Court of Arbitration, questioning China’s broad claims over the South China Sea, and in 2016, the tribunal ruled that China’s claims to the South China Sea have no legal basis, which China immediately rejected as void.

The situation escalated this month as well, as the Philippine Maritime Council blamed Chinese maritime forces for ramming a Filipino vessel near Thitu Island. During the ASEAN Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s remarks about unity and friendship between China and ASEAN members were met with skepticism by the Philippine president, who criticized China’s activities again.

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China gives Japan’s new prime minister Sanae Takaichi the cold shoulder

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China has yet to congratulate Japan’s new prime minister nearly a week after her appointment — a departure from diplomatic precedent that underscores the strained state of relations between the two Asian powers.

Sanae Takaichi, 64, a prominent China hawk, took office on Tuesday, becoming Japan’s first female prime minister and the fifth leader in five years. She succeeded Shigeru Ishiba, who received congratulatory messages from both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang on the day he assumed office in October last year. Beijing also promptly congratulated former prime ministers Fumio Kishida in 2021 and Yoshihide Suga in 2020.

When asked on Thursday whether Beijing planned to congratulate Takaichi, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, “China made proper arrangements according to diplomatic practices.” “China and Japan are close neighbors. China’s fundamental position on its relations with Japan is consistent and clear,” Guo continued. “We hope Japan and China will… honor Japan’s political commitments on major issues… uphold the political foundation of bilateral relations, and fully advance the China–Japan strategic relationship of mutual benefit.”

Analysts warn that tensions between Beijing and Tokyo may escalate under Takaichi’s administration, given her outspoken positions on Taiwan and Japan’s wartime history.

Takaichi has long advocated for prime ministerial visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan’s war dead — including convicted war criminals — and remains a flashpoint for Chinese anger over Japan’s 1931 invasion and occupation of China and the atrocities committed by its forces.

Her engagement with Taiwanese officials has also drawn criticism from Beijing. In April, Takaichi met Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te in Taipei, calling for closer defense cooperation to “maintain our security guarantees.” She also met Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung in Japan in July.

Relations between China and Japan have long been marred by territorial disputes, historical grievances, and Japan’s security alignment with Washington. Despite recent efforts to expand economic cooperation and promote people-to-people exchanges, ties remain fraught — particularly on defense matters.

Those tensions are likely to deepen, as Takaichi pledged in her first policy speech on Friday to accelerate Japan’s defense spending targets by two years. The Chinese foreign ministry criticized the move, saying it heightened regional concerns about Japan’s security trajectory.

China gives Japan’s new prime minister Sanae Takaichi the cold shoulder Read More »

Three Chinese Nationals Detained in Georgia For Trying To Buy Uranium Illegally

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On October 25, Georgia’s State Security Service (SSG) announced the detention of three Chinese nationals in Tbilisi for allegedly attempting to illegally purchase two kilograms of uranium, a radioactive nuclear material.

According to the SSG, the suspects planned to buy the uranium for USD 400,000 and smuggle it to China through Russia. One of the detainees, who was residing illegally in Georgia, reportedly brought in Chinese experts interested in acquiring the material and began actively searching for uranium sources within the country.

The investigation also revealed that other criminal groups from China were involved in assisting the operation. The detainees have been charged under Article 230 of Georgia’s Criminal Code, which carries a penalty of up to 10 years’ imprisonment.

The case underscores growing concerns that Georgia, under the Georgian Dream government’s increasingly anti-democratic policies, is becoming a safe haven for arms traffickers and individuals seeking to circumvent international regulations and sanctions.

We will continue to monitor developments in this case and provide further updates as additional information becomes available.

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Beijing’s New Five-Year Plan Raises Alarm in Taiwan

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As China prepares to unveil its 15th Five-Year Plan, Taiwan is increasingly concerned that Beijing could use the economic blueprint to expand influence across the Taiwan Strait — not only through trade and industry but also over Taiwan’s nearby islands.

Taipei’s officials fear that Beijing may symbolically include Taiwan or its offshore islands, such as Kinmen and Matsu in the upcoming plan. The move would blur the boundary between economic cooperation and political control.

China’s new plan is expected to emphasize high-tech industries, green energy, and infrastructure. Analysts say Beijing could seek to integrate Taiwanese companies into its economic system, offering reasons to attract investment and align industries such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence with Chinese priorities.

Beijing promotes such cooperation as “mutually beneficial,” but Taiwan sees it as part of a long-term strategy to increase dependency and weaken resistance to unite. 

Analysts highlight growing concern over Kinmen and Matsu — two Taiwanese-controlled islands located just a few kilometers from China’s coast. Beijing has recently expanded air routes, increased coast-guard patrols, and even proposed building a bridge from Xiamen to Kinmen without consulting Taiwan.

Taipei warns that such moves could be early steps toward asserting de facto control. “If they dare to invade Kinmen, we will become the next Crimea,” one Taiwanese official stated. 

Experts note that Beijing’s approach has shifted from direct military confrontation to economic and infrastructural integration. By placing Taiwan’s economy within China’s broader development goals, Beijing aims to make this unity appear both practical and inevitable.

At the same time, residents of Kinmen and Matsu — who depend heavily on trade and tourism from the mainland — face a difficult balance between economic opportunity and national security. The islands are also vulnerable to critical infrastructure threats, including undersea communication cables. Taiwan has detained China-linked vessels suspected of tampering with these cables and stepped up patrols, highlighting concerns about Beijing’s non-military pressure tactics.

Taiwanese leaders have urged Beijing to refrain from including any Taiwanese territories or projects in its domestic policies. Meanwhile, Taiwan continues to strengthen defenses on its outer islands, investing in anti-drone systems and coast-guard patrols.

Analysts warn that even if China’s plan stops short of explicit annexation language, any reference to cross-Strait “integration zones” or infrastructure links could heighten tensions and challenge Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Beijing’s next five-year plan may shape more than China’s economic future — it could redefine the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait. Through a mix of economic encouragement and strategic planning, China appears intent on binding Taiwan closer to their policy one policy step at a time.

Author: Nia Kokhreidze

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Renewed China-EU Dialogue

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Amid mounting trade and geopolitical tensions between China and the European Union, China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held a video meeting with European Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič on October 21, 2025, to explore avenues for the healthy and stable development of economic relations. The central focus of the negotiations was China’s tightening of export controls on rare minerals, a measure that Wang defended as a “normal action,” but which the EU regards as illegitimate economic coercion. Rare minerals are critically important for European manufacturing, including electric vehicle batteries and high-tech weaponry.

Another key issue in the dialogue was the European Union’s anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles. Furthermore, the two sides discussed the case of the Chinese company Nexperia: the Dutch government took exceptional measures, citing national security concerns, which threaten the operations of the Chinese-owned company. The government of the Netherlands imposed managerial control over Nexperia, the auto chip manufacturing subsidiary of the Chinese transnational corporation Wingtech Technologies. In response to this move, China banned the export of finished products and other components assembled in China for Nexperia, thereby limiting the company’s ability to fulfil orders for its European customers (BMW, Mercedes-Benz).

Wang Wentao criticized the move by the Netherlands as an “overextension of the national security concept” and demanded that they respect contractual obligations, to which the European Union expressed its willingness to facilitate constructive negotiations between The Hague and Beijing.

Ultimately, both sides agreed that a renewed meeting would take place soon in Brussels, confirming their readiness to resolve sharp trade disputes through diplomatic channels.

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Trump plans a “fantastic deal” with China while meeting President Xi

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At the end of this month, the 2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit is scheduled to be held in South Korea, where leaders of member countries will gather to discuss global economic issues. Amid the complicated relations and trade war between China and the U.S., the President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced he hopes to meet with Xi and reach a “fantastic deal” with China. He offered to lower tariffs but also noted that China should make concessions too, including buying U.S.-produced soybeans and ending restrictions on rare earth minerals. These two factors—China halting U.S. soybeans imports and its near-monopoly on rare earth minerals—are powerful tools for China and could put significant pressure on Trump to lower tariffs and attempt to strike a deal with Beijing. 

For U.S. farmers, it is nearly impossible to find a replacement for the enormous Chinese demand, as China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans and the largest customer of U.S. farmers. For example, last year China exported half of the U.S.-produced soybeans, which amounts to $12.6 billion. But this year, as a retaliation to U.S.-imposed tariffs, Chinese purchase of soybeans has declined significantly, which dramatically affected U.S farmers, who in turn lobby Trump to change his policies toward China. On the other hand, while American farmers are desperate, China has found an alternative supplier – Brazil. In August, China purchased $ 4.7 billion in soybeans from Brazil, which, compared to the U.S supply, is around fifty times larger. This situation puts China in an advantageous position – it pressures the U.S agricultural sector and also deepens “south-south cooperation”.

Besides the soybean problem, which may only affect U.S farmers, there’s the issue of rare earth minerals, which is a huge problem not only for the U.S but for the global economy and manufacturing of a wide range of electronics, from iPhones to electric cars and etc. China controls more than 90% of the global output of refined rare earths. So, the upcoming summit and talks between the U.S and China are an important event for the global economy. This trade war has damaged both countries and their economies, and the deal between them will indeed be “fantastic”, as Trump said, but considering Trump’s unpredictable decisions, it’s hard to say what will actually happen.

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China announces its five-year economic development plan

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Xi Jinping will present China’s five-year strategy at the fourth plenary session this week. The plan aims to make China the world’s second-largest economy, in the context of competition with the United States. It is notable that the meeting will take place one week before a planned meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in South Korea.

The economy is not the only topic. The plenary may also address personnel changes, since several officials have been removed after the anti-corruption campaign. One main issue is the changes in the Central Military Commission, which has lost some credibility because of Xi Jinping’s campaign. Three of the commission’s six military members were dismissed. During the plenary, about 12 alternate members are expected to fill vacancies in the Central Committee.

According to Neil Thomas, a specialist on China at the Asia Society Policy Institute, each member of the Central Committee knows that their future depends on Xi Jinping’s favor. At the same time, the personnel changes strengthen Xi Jinping’s control over both the party and the military.

Meanwhile, in the United States, government operations have been suspended for the third week because the Senate has not passed a funding bill for federal agencies before the new fiscal year. For China’s leadership, this meeting is especially important. They believe the country is working in a hostile global environment, mainly because of the trade war with the U.S. and limited access to Western technologies. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s economic growth in 2025 fell to its lowest level in the third quarter. Annual growth reached 4.8%, lower than the previous quarter. This decline is attributed to external economic pressure, but domestic political and economic imbalances also play a role.

Next Five-Year Plan and Domestic Economic Challenges

The five-year plan will take effect in 2026, with full details expected only by March next year, after approval by the legislature. Xi Jinping has highlighted the main priorities: updating the economic strategy to shift the focus from production growth to improving product quality. The goal is to build an economy that develops innovative technologies and is less dependent on cheap labor and exports. The plan also considers a transition to green energy and reducing pollution to limit the exploitation of natural resources.

China’s main economic challenge is low consumer demand amid excess production. Youth unemployment is relatively low. Economic regulation is needed, as industrial development is partly slowed by overproduction. International partners are urging China to halt the export of surplus products, as overproduction drives down market prices.

Jakob Gunter, head of the Economics and Industry Program at the MERICS research center in Berlin, is skeptical about China’s economic renewal plan. He says there is little chance that the new five-year plan will differ significantly from the current strategy, because Xi Jinping already controls the system, and large-scale structural changes are not in his interest at this stage. The plan may focus on boosting consumer demand and limiting domestic competition to balance excess production. However, Gunter notes that if changes occur over the long term, we can expect stronger social protection, a review of subsidiarity policies, and a reduction of excess investments. China aims for stability and sustainable development in its economy.

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China’s Crackdown on Underground Churches Sparks Global Condemnation

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Chinese authorities have detained 30 leaders of prominent underground christian churches in a sweeping crackdown on unregistered religious groups, sparking condemnation and strong criticism from the US and international human rights groups. 

The arrest reportedly targets figures linked to the Zion church network, one of China’s largest unregistered “house church’’movements. These communities operate outside the state controlled three-self patriotic movements and have long resisted government supervision to register under government oversight, citing their right to practice faith freely. “Such systematic persecution is not only an affront to the Church of God but also a public challenge to the international community,” Zion Church said in a statement.

Analysts say the detentions are part of the wider effort to tighten control over the religion and suppress the groups that function independently of the communist party. The Chinese Communist Party promotes atheism and tightly controls religion and the government has increasingly targeted Christian congregations, Muslim minorities, and other religious groups it deems “unauthorized” or politically sensitive. Human rights advocates warn that the move can severely damage what remains of China’s religious freedom. 

The United States urged Beijing to immediately release the detained church leaders, describing the action as a serious violation of religious freedom. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement on Sunday that “this crackdown further demonstrates how the CCP exercises hostility towards Christians who reject Party interference in their faith and choose to worship at unregistered house churches”. Former US vice-president Mike Pence and former secretary of state Mike Pompeo have also released statements on X condemning the arrests. 

Some of the British officials including the UK’s envoy of freedom of religion lord David Alton have demanded the immediate release of church leaders. A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in London said: “We would like to stress that the Chinese citizens enjoy freedom of religious belief in accordance with law. Meanwhile, all religious groups and religious activities must comply with the laws and regulations of China.” They argued that the crackdown violates both the Chinese constitution and international human rights obligations. 

China officially recognizes five religions but requires them to register and follow strict state guidelines. Independent churches that refuse often face surveillance, raids, or closure. Experts warn that the latest detentions will deepen fear among millions of Christians who continue to worship in private homes and small gatherings.

Despite huge international  pressure, many believers remain determined to continue their faith practices underground. As international attention grows, the coming weeks will test whether diplomatic pressure can influence China’s decisons—or whether its tightening control over religion will intensify further.

Author: Nia Kokhreidze

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