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ASSESSMENT OF GEORGIA’S STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP STATEMENT WITH THE PRC

On July 31, 2023, during the official visit of Georgian PM Irakli Gharibashvili to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a Sino-Georgian strategic partnership agreement was formally established. Under the terms of this agreement, Georgia pledges its full support to all initiatives put forth by Xi Jinping and expresses its readiness to engage actively. This surprising turn of events undermines the nation’s ambitions to align with Euro-Atlantic partnerships and could pose long-term security risks. There is no doubt among the Western academia and the security community that in the era of Great Power Competition, the initiatives launched by China are aimed at revising the existing global international order and establishing alternative, Sinocentric foreign policy relations, where China’s domestic authoritarianism or aggressive foreign policy will remain immune to the resulting international reactions.

Against this backdrop, it is crucial to understand the role and function of each individual initiative in achieving China’s above-mentioned ultimate goals. For this purpose, the “Civic Idea” has prepared a series of analytical blogs where China’s initiatives are analyzed.

  • One Belt One Road
  • Global Development Initiative
  • Global Security Initiative
  • Global Civilization Initiative

For more information, please see the full report below 👇

ASSESSMENT OF GEORGIA’S STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP STATEMENT WITH THE PRC Read More »

A drop in the ocean Chinese investments in Georgia

Following the publication of the Sino Georgian strategic cooperation statement, discussions on the ups and downs of this document have become a focal point in the Georgian media. This is not surprising since the issue concerns one of the largest and most ambitious states in the world, and its foreign policy moves are constantly at the center of attention.

Yet, a quick look at the China-related stories in the Georgian media highlights a distinct line of internal political resistance and the particular media outlet’s political inclination inclination. Yet due to the limited availability of information in Georgian, people form their perceptions of China based solely on what their chosen media source conveys.

In order to spread propaganda messages and narratives crafted by the Chinese Communist Party, dedicated programs air on various channels from time to time, exclusively featuring news about the People’s Republic of China. Recently, these programs incorporated exclusive interviews with the Chinese ambassador, directly conveying the agenda and objectives of the propaganda. Georgian Dream MPs and propagandists echo the narratives of the Chinese Communist Party with remarkable precision. “The fascination by economic cooperation with China” is one of their favorite talking points, and they repeat with absolute conviction that only “fools refuse” investments from China, for which the Georgian government works tirelessly.

Hereby, we need to emphasize that genuine success in economic relations can be gauged by a surge in direct investments and heightened interest from numerous companies entering the country, resulting in the creation of additional jobs and increased incomes fueled by external capital. It’s important to note that when observing the infrastructure developments such as roads, bridges, and tunnels in Georgia, a substantial portion of the funding originates from the Georgian taxpayers, specifically allocated in the state budget. These Chinese companies execute projects at the Georgian nations’ behest, being funded and directed by the Georgian government. As a result, their involvement has no correlation with the “growing” economic cooperation and the “enhanced economic appeal” of the country, which is primarily attributed to the successful work of the government. 

The truth is best reflected by official statistics, and nothing is more accurate and reliable than that. Without any additional explanations and interpretations, we present the data published by the Department of Statistics of Georgia over the years regarding foreign direct investments. This data unmistakably illustrates the government’s complete failure to attract Chinese investments, particularly in contrast to the lofty claims of significant interest and “immeasurably deepened” relations.

FDI from PRC
2010 – 2022 in thousands USD

As can be clearly seen in the present table, China’s investments in the country are so insignificant and meaningless that it is impossible even to consider them seriously. Meanwhile, in the wake of the government’s “effective steps”, even those minor investments are falling year by year. For example, in recent years, investments have decreased almost twice compared to 2018. The benchmark for 2020 and 2021 is simply negative. Naturally, the main argument of the opponents regarding the years 2020 and 2021 starts with the “COVID-19” pandemic, although the pandemic did not prevent Georgia’s real strategic partners from investing in the country. See the corresponding table.

FDI by countries
compared to the PRC.
2020 – 2021 in thousands USD

The share of a country with a huge and “most successful” economy in Georgia’s investment basket is extremely small, and the government’s policy, which promises huge results, has led nowhere since 2016. Investments made by the People’s Republic of China were definitely characterized by growth; in 2013, it exceeded 100 Million USD, and in the following year, 2014, it doubled and reached 221 million USD. However, after that, a sharp decrease began, and its average figure is a completely symbolic and meaningless reality. The table below clearly shows the dynamics of 2011-2022:

The share of PRC
FDI to Georgia.
2011 – 2022

The truth is that, China does not appear among the top 10 major investors in Georgia during the tenure of the “Georgian Dream” party in government:

Top 10 countries by FDI to Georgia
2015 – 2022
The PRC is not among them.
in thousands USD

Mathematics is the best friend for unveiling the truth. The numbers do not lie and do not perfectly describe the partnership, interests interests, and foreign policy objectives of states.

A drop in the ocean Chinese investments in Georgia Read More »

Security Alliances and Cooperation in Pandemic and Conflict

The dynamics of international relations have been fundamentally altered by the global pandemic’s far-reaching impact and Russia’s full-scale conventional warfare in Ukraine. The common understanding stood that the post-coronavirus era would usher in a new world order, with the invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions against Russia further bolstering this contention. While the entire democratic world is concentrated on fighting one crisis after another, we also see the shifts in the behavior and positions of individual states, security alliances and international organizations.

International society is in the middle of significant transitions, revising goals and values and adjusting new policies toward the changing world order. It is the time to redefine the terms, mandates, search for new partners and new allies, and mark red lines. It is exactly the objective of this essay, to identify specific problems and policy shortcomings revealed amid recent global developments and the absolute necessity for the security alliances to consider, building resilience and boosting effective and timely cooperation with relevant parties aimed at rapid response and effective prevention of crises in the future.

The COVID-19 pandemic has become the most unprecedented global challenge the world has faced since World War II. The early alarms regarding the outbreak were elusive and unbelievable for all, resulting in the absence of prompt reactions and a number of political, economic, and health policy setbacks. In line with these obstacles, the virus has also shown the states their own insecurities. Countries acted spontaneously, and prioritized individual needs as opposed to collective strategies within the alliances to combat the virus jointly. The lack of solidarity at the initial stage negatively affected the mobilization, coordination, and allocation of necessary resources to combat the pandemic in the early phase. Together with uncoordinated action, unfamiliarity with the virus, the absence of sufficient medical equipment and treatments, and the shortages of vaccines caused total chaos in the world. In the early stage of fighting the pandemic EU and NATO missed the most important asset, unparalleled knowledge and strength available to them when joining forces and getting into collective action. Hence, the crisis instigated a severe blow to the world population and struck the global market as well, leaving long-term damaging consequences.

Timely assessment and recognition of failures and shortcomings brought by individual action strengthened democratic alliances and brought us to the strongest ever united democratic front against the unprovoked and unjustified full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine.

Why did this happen only now? It certainly is not the first demonstration of Russian aggression. The events of 2008 and 2014 have already exposed Russia to stirring up conflicts, occupying territories of independent states, and then using them as leverage to manipulate its neighbors, prevent progress, and their integration into the Western economic and security alliances. The democratic world united against Russia only after Kremlin turned the conflict that started in 2014 into a full-scale war in Ukraine, bringing back fear of war in Europe and reminding the largest and strongest alliances, the EU and NATO of their original mission to keep Europe united and in peace. The war in Europe facilitated rapid change in policies and caused an increase in defense spending and arms production.

Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, it is important to highlight two additional issues: the PRC and its role in the new world order and the threat of global nuclear conflict.

The Chinese factor is a common feature of the pandemic and the war since it is equally relevant in both cases. The PRC’s concealment of the covid outbreak, information manipulation, and subsequent wide-scale “covid diplomacy” led to the massive transmission of the virus, nurturing disastrous global economic and health crises. The Chinese factor is also noteworthy precisely because of the global game it has played so far, according to which, on the one hand, it calls itself the “peacemaker”, and on the other hand, as an authoritarian state, provides indirect economic and military support to another authoritarian state, Russia, against the Western security alliances.

The war in Ukraine also revived the concept of nuclear security as the risks of inadvertent nuclear escalation increased. It likewise highlighted the ineffectiveness of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, thereby raising doubts about the credibility of security alliances and the promises they have made, placing the onus on them to offer complete support to Ukraine. Therefore, as long as nuclear weapons are in the hands of authoritarian states, this issue should not lose its relevancy for security alliances, as mismanagement will have enormously irreversible results for the whole world.

The crisis of the last years brought the existing international world order under huge pressure. The experience of the pandemic proved that we could take nothing for granted and even the strongest alliances, united by the strongest bonds of common values, markets, and security dilemmas, might crumble against the invisible and unknown enemy. However, success is determined not only by how we react initially but, more importantly, by recognizing shortcomings, accurate assessment, and immediate action for improvement and eradication of causes of failures. Regardless of all the problems, democracies came out more robust from the covid crisis, even more, enchanted by the magic of unity and solidarity.

Rigorous and reliable cooperation under the umbrella of security alliances serves as vital mechanisms for collective action, fostering the consolidation of resources, expertise, and collaborative endeavors to effectively confront shared challenges while promoting global security and stability. Different from and learning from the mistakes of covid pandemic, Russia’s brutal aggression in Ukraine unified the democratic world and facilitated an even stronger commitment to peace and liberty based on respect for the sovereignty of the democratic states and freedom of choice over partnership and alliances. Faced by the brutality of conventional war in Europe, brought the alliances to look ahead and pay special attention to authoritarian states beyond Russia, creating leverage by initially reducing cooperation, and lowering economic/diplomatic dependence on them. With these means and united action, we aim at rapidly preventing future crises, the security alliances must never stop working to develop even more efficient universal policy directives for themselves and to share with the partner parties.

Ani Kintsurashvili – Author of the Article, Senior Researcher, Civic IDEA

Security Alliances and Cooperation in Pandemic and Conflict Read More »

An attempt to show the EU’s unity in relations with China – Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen in Beijing

From April 5-8, 2023, world’s media focused on Beijing, where French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with senior officials from the People’s Republic of China, including President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. Given the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and rising tensions in Sino-American relations, this state visit was thought-provoking. What were the main goals, issues, and outcomes of the visit? I will try to answer these and other questions in this blog.

EU-China Relations and Europe’s Strategic autonomy

No to decoupling, yes to de-risking

Russia-Ukraine War

Taiwan issue

Other important results of the visit

Conclusion

In conclusion, we can say that the joint visit of Macron and Leyen to China was an attempt by European leaders to show their unity with regard to the EU’s foreign policy towards Beijing. It is true that on some issues, Macron acted more like a “good cop”, while Ursula chose a “bad cop” stance and at times criticized Chinese policy on several issues, including Taiwan and human rights in the Xinjiang region. However, the two EU leaders did manage to agree on two key messages: On the Russia-Ukraine war, they told President Xi that arming Russia would significantly damage EU-China relations and China should be actively involved in ending the war. Regarding EU-China relations, their message was that the EU does not follow the U.S. strategy of “decoupling” and prefers to “de-risk” from China. Time will tell if this strategy is effective or not.

Giorgi Khachidze Author of the Blog, Intern, Civic IDEA

An attempt to show the EU’s unity in relations with China – Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen in Beijing Read More »

Friends With(out) Limits: key takeaways from Putin – Xi Jinping meeting

On March 20, 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping embarked on his first visit to Russia since the beginning of the Ukraine war. The three-day visit conveyed significant signals to the international community and highlighted the burgeoning partnership between the two powers.

Here are some key takeaways from the meeting:

The warm meeting between the two leaders that took place despite these implications is a message in and of itself.

The Ukraine War

Economic and Energy Cooperation

Military

“New Era of Cooperation”

International Response

Conclusion

In conclusion, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia has clearly shown his support for Vladimir Putin and the strengthening partnership between the two countries. The meeting highlighted close economic ties and cooperation in the energy and military sectors, as well as shared concerns over NATO’s growing military-security relations with the Asia-Pacific region. The invitation extended by Xi to the Russian Prime Minister during the visit is also indicative of the deepening cooperation between the two nations.

Nutsa Dzandzava – Author of the Blog, Intern, Civic IDEA

Friends With(out) Limits: key takeaways from Putin – Xi Jinping meeting Read More »

LOOKING FORWARD: The Future of China-Central Asia Relations

Establishing political background

Warm Welcome of China ‘help’ in Central Asia

Uzbekistan is no more in isolation

Digitalization

All member states of the SCO recognize digitalization as an essential step to development. SCO member states have thus welcomed China’s eagerness to share and sell its tech-driven practices and insights. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has made digitalization one of his most urgent tasks and focused on emulating the Chinese model. Kazakhstan praised China’s success. Pointing to a specific Chinese company, Hikvision, he said the company’s techniques “have gone far ahead, they deeply digitalized all major cities. You click on the screen, the data on the person comes out, including literally everything. When he graduated from university, where he goes in his free time, and so on … We need to go in this direction. This is a global trend. I set this task just before our capital’s leadership”. Countries are set on a long-term path of reliance on Chinese technologies, with limited development of local capacity. In a worst-case scenario, this reliance – combined with a lack of local capacity – exposes Central Asian countries to deep potential national security problems, with the little domestic capability to manage these things themselves.

Green Finances

It is trendy in the age of digitization to move the economy to green color, investing more in green and self-sustaining development projects. For example, European countries are interested in investing in green energy, and Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic are rich in water resources and could self-sustain in the coming decades if investing in their development now. Overburdening developing countries with large loans as the Sri Lanka experiment showed, does not bring any good.

Umedjon Majidi – Author of the blog series, Expert/Research Consultant, Civic IDEA

LOOKING FORWARD: The Future of China-Central Asia Relations Read More »

China’s long-term policy toward its Western frontier

20th National Congress of the China Communist Party held on 16-20 October 2022 in Beijing. The congress concluded by approving the members of the standing committee and politburo (2296 members-delegate) and, for the third term, approved the selection of the Secretary-General of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, for the next five years.

Humiliation of predecessors

Western frontier – Central Asian countries

The importance of this engagement is the broadening of China’s historically economy-led (Chinese public and private investment and commerce) presence in the region to include hard power – strategy-security-military dimensions too. Friendly and neighboring states that are more aligned with their foreign policy prerogatives and long-term economic calculus. Underestimates the extent to which China is prepared to recouple and deepen trade ties – selectively – in the aftermath of the pandemic.

Umedjon Majidi – Author of the blog series, Expert/Research Consultant, Civic IDEA

China’s long-term policy toward its Western frontier Read More »

What Central Asian countries think about China?

Central Asia Barometer is a Bishkek-based nonprofit that engages in applied social science research. It conducts large-scale public opinions surveys in the Central Asia twice annually. One key question is how respondents perceive about China.

In Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan the most common response to this question is “somewhat favorable.” Yet in all three countries, when asked about China, the share of people giving a favorable answer has dropped noticeably in recent years.

Kazakhstan has faced more pressure in the last five years from China as Kazakh authorities deal with local anger at the Chinese government’s forced detentions of ethnic minorities (especially Uyghurs) in the Xinjiang region.

Combined Heat and Power plant (CHP) in August 2017.

The 4-year modernization of the city’s only source of heat for over half a century was initiated by the ex-president, and cost $386 million, which was borrowed from China on credit. The contractor chosen for the project, Tebian Electric Apparatus Stock Co LTD (ТBЕА), which built two new boiler units, each with an emission capacity of 150 megawatts (MW) of power and 150 gigacalories of heat.

On 26 January 2018, during a period of unusually hard frosts, an accident at the CHP plant led to a four-day breakdown of its heating system.

Kyrgyzstan’s member of parliament demanded that the culprits be put behind bars and took themselves en masse to the CHP plant to discover why the boilers had packed up.

Umedjon Majidi – Author of the blog series, Expert/Research Consultant, Civic IDEA

What Central Asian countries think about China? Read More »

Kazakh’ minorities in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region

Turkish-speaking minorities under oppression

The oppression of Turkic-speaking indigenous peoples professing mainly Islam, forced sending of Uyghur, Kazakhs and others to “political re-education camps”, seizure of their passports, placement under so-called house arrests. Many minorities of Xinjiang have fled China for fear of detention. The Kazakhs are the second largest Turkic-speaking ethnic group in Xinjiang after the Uyghurs and estimated around 1.2 million people.

The protests

Kazakhs in Uyghur Tribunal

    Sterilization + Birth Control = Genocide

    Kazakh’ minorities in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region Read More »

    Xinjiang and Central Asia: What’s Going On!

    Since 2017, there have been reports from China of harassment of Turkic-speaking indigenous peoples, who profess mainly Islam, the forced sending of Uighurs, Kazakhs and others to “political re-education camps”, the confiscation of their passports, and the placement under so-called house arrests. In recent years, many members of Xinjiang’s indigenous ethnic groups have fled China for fear of detention. China’s policies are sharply criticized by Western countries, including the United States, which call what is happening in Xinjiang genocide. Beijing rejects the accusations, calling the camps “vocational training centers” set up to fight extremism and terrorism.

    Central Asia support in solving the problem of Xinjiang. This means deporting any requested Chinese citizens of several ethnic groups– Uighurs, Kazakhs or Kyrgyz – back to China. Illegal border defectors are in most cases immediately sent back without ascertaining whether the person is seeking refugee status. This worked quite successfully for a while, but internal pressure from the Kazakh population on their government also led to the authorities slightly softening their position for ethnic Kazakhs. Kazakhstan’s political elites are now in a very difficult situation.

    China also appreciates regional support for the Xinjiang issue in the international arena. Central Asian countries, which have consistently voiced their support for Beijing, have proven to be an important counterweight to Western voices, and it has become clear that Central Asian countries are more likely to side with China than the West. In addition, from time to time we see politicians from Central Asia talking in Chinese newspapers about supporting China’s policy towards Taiwan or supporting China’s national security law in Hong Kong. This is purely political influence of Beijing in order to form its own support group, although the region may not know or be interested in the situation in Taiwan or Hong Kong, but Central Asian leaders simply agree with Beijing’s position.

    Beijing’s political influence is that Beijing should get what it wants. For a long time, China only wanted support on its domestic issues, but that is changing. Now China is dissatisfied with anti-Chinese sentiment among the local population in Central Asia and is asking political leaders to solve this in some way. This is a more direct intervention that can polarize the relationship between the political class of Central Asia and the local population. Repeatedly, representatives of the Chinese embassy came to complain about how poorly China is portrayed in the Kyrgyz media, they told Kyrgyz politicians that this is a bad practice of good neighborliness. The situation is similar in Tajikistan, there is a hidden message that the anti-Chinese position is a crime, so there are no protests there, citizens can be arrested for this. In Kyrgyzstan, police are also arresting and threatening leaders of anti-China protests, and at the moment, people can still complain about China, but China is already demanding that Central Asian governments prevent this.

    Umedjon Majidi – Author of the blog series, Expert/Research Consultant, Civic IDEA

    Xinjiang and Central Asia: What’s Going On! Read More »

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