US-China trade war. All the key dates starting from July 2018
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South Caucasus, Central Asia / Global Influence
CHINESE INVESTMENTS IN CENTRAL ASIA AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS; THEIR FINANCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT THEREIN
This comprehensive report examines the geopolitical tensions, environmental concerns, and debt sustainability challenges associated with Chinese investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Drawing on publicly available sources, it focuses on seven countries across Central Asia and the South Caucasus, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, with particular attention to loan mechanisms and environmental implications.
The findings reveal that Chinese investments in Central Asia have contributed to growing debt burdens and environmental degradation. In contrast, while the scale of Chinese investment in the South Caucasus is comparatively modest, it still poses environmental risks and suggests potential debt vulnerabilities, particularly in Georgia.
The report highlights China’s global environmental commitments, such as emission reductions and forest stock expansion, including its pledges under the Paris Agreement. However, implementation of these commitments remains inconsistent, often encouraged by weak local governmental approaches to environmental standards in both Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
The analysis concludes that China’s international lending practices are characterized by a lack of transparency, with a preference for official loans over aid. These loans typically carry higher interest rates, shorter maturities, and are often collateralized against project assets, features that contrast sharply with the more concessional terms of Western financing. In the South Caucasus, Chinese loans tend to benefit China by promoting exports and deepening trade dependencies. In Central Asia, Chinese financial influence is more substantial, with countries like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan facing significant debt distress, raising concerns about asset loss and long-term economic vulnerability.
China’s expanding footprint in Eurasia; Geopolitics, Trade and Environmental Implications
Civic IDEA is pleased to share the 3rd volume of the collection of articles “China’s Expanding Footprint in Eurasia: Geopolitics, Trade and Environmental Implications”. The collection of articles features the insights of authors, incorporating perspectives and comprehensive views on China’s expanding influence in Central Asia and beyond, shedding light on the complexities and consequences of this dynamic on local and international scales. These articles delve into various aspects of China’s influence and regional dynamics:
√ Bernadett Szel – “Chinese Influence in Hungary” – This article explores how China’s economic and political presence has grown in Hungary, analyzing the strategies employed by China to establish and expand its influence within the country. Szelexamines the implications of this influence on Hungary’s domestic and foreign policies.
√ Tatyana Sedova – “China’s influence in critical minerals (CM) development in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan” – Sedova delves into China’s role in the critical minerals sector of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. She discusses how China’s investment and involvement in the development of these minerals are reshaping the industry and affecting the economic and geopolitical landscape of the region.
√ Olzhas Zhorayev – “Perception of China in Central Asian Countries: Trends and Comparative Analysis” – Zhorayevprovides a comparative analysis of how China is perceived across various Central Asian countries. The article identifies trends in public opinion and governmental stances towards China, offering insights into the factors that shape these perceptions and their potential impact on regional cooperation and policy-making.
√ Fuad Shahbazov – “The increasing role of the Middle Corridor in East-West Trade: What Role for Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Partnership?” – Shahbazov’s article focuses on the Middle Corridor, a key trade route connecting East and West through Central Asia. He examines the strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in enhancing the corridor’s efficiency and competitiveness and how this partnership is influenced by China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
√ Vadim Ni – “Will BRI affect public environmental rights in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan?” – The article investigates the environmental implications of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The article addresses concerns about how increased infrastructure projects and economic activities under the BRI might impact public environmental rights and local ecosystems, proposing measures to mitigate potential adverse effects.
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CHINA’S GROWING TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT IN CENTRAL ASIA
Civic IDEA’s partner experts, Danila Bekturganov and Abbos Bobokhonov, implemented research on “Chinese growing technological impact in Central Asia”, overviewing the main activities of Chinese technology companies in the two largest countries of the Central Asian region – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The authors considered the opportunities available for Chinese technology companies to access the personal and biometric data of users – citizens of Central Asian countries. Moreover, they studied the prospects for cooperation between Chinese technology companies and the authorities of the Central Asian countries and provided conclusions and main recommendations on the areas of advocacy activities both on the regional and international levels.
The material has been prepared with the support of a DTL (Doublethink Lab) grant – CITW fund. 
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Central Asia Regional Positioning on the Russia – Ukraine War
The report presents the update of Civic IDEA’s last year’s take on “Can Russia find more friends and support in the war against Ukraine? – position and reactions of Central Asian Countries” (See https://civicidea.ge/en/3712-2/new/), overviewing the range of tactical and strategic narratives expressed by Central Asian states during the initial four months of the Russia-Ukraine war. The updated version aims to explore the shifts and changes in the positioning of the Central Asian countries on Russian aggression against Ukraine, as well as the great East-West power competition and the leverage of the region’s two authoritarian neighbors, Russia and China in various domains such as politics, international platforms, economics, military cooperation, and disinformation campaigns.
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Collection of Articles Vol. 2 “From Caspian to Black Sea Economic, Academic and Digital Threats posed by the PRC”
Civic IDEA has the honor to share with the audience the second part of the series of Collection of Articles under the name “From Caspian to Black Sea: Economic, Academic and Digital Threats posed by the PRC”. Publication in front of you is the second edition of a collective effort by Civic IDEA and its partners and distinguished experts from the region to analyze and debate the Chinese activities in their respective countries in various fields, be it academia, business, politics, or other state matters. This time, the publication was inspired by the outstanding work of our Taiwanese partner Doublethink Lab about the Chinese influence operations assembled in China Index-2021, to be followed at https://china-index.io. This regularly updated web tracker allows all interested in monitoring and measuring PRC influence around the Globe.
The contributor authors to the second issue of the collection of articles are the following:
Tinatin Khidasheli – Chairperson, Civic IDEA
Ani Kintsurashvili – Senior Researcher, Civic IDEA
Vusal Guliyev – Fellow, the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University
Gubad Ibadoghlu – Senior Visiting Fellow, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
Umedjon Majidi – Anti Corruption Expert, Sarajevo, BIH
Gia Jandieri – Director, New Economic School of Georgia
Danila Bekturganov – Director, NGO “Civil Expertise”
Denis Cenusa – Associated Expert, Think Tank EESC (Lithuania) / Think Tank Expert-Grup (Moldova)
Civic IDEA is also grateful to National Endowment for Democracy and the US Embassy for their immense support and contribution.
Collection of Articles Analysis of the Growing Chinese Influence in South Caucasus and Central Asia
Dear readers
It is a great honor for us to share with you the first part of the publication initiated by “Civic IDEA” and prepared together with partners, which will tell you the story of the growing influence of foreign countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The second part of this edition is planned for 2022.
This publication is a collection of 8 analytical articles, which mainly introduce the dynamics of various projects, loans, and debts initiated by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the South Caucasian and Central Asian countries, the growth and expansion of the role of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), as well as the existing threats and most notable events. While much is being written today about the operations of the People’s Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party by various research institutes and organizations worldwide, very little is said about region of our interest and even less about the dynamics and patterns that are unequivocally evident in these states.
“Civic IDEA” has been studying Chinese influence operations in our region for more than three years now. We are interested in the policies of the Chinese state, its universities, and other educational centers, companies, and financial institutions, etc. Accordingly, in our previous publications, you will find materials about the activities of the Confucius Institutes, student and scientific exchange programs, the so-called “debt trap” practices, and security risks for different countries, etc.
In this publication, you will get more detailed information and knowledge about seven countries: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Unfortunately, despite our numerous attempts, we could not find a suitable partner in Turkmenistan who would agree to participate in the joint study.
The work about Georgia was written by Ani Kintsurashvili, a senior researcher at the Civic IDEA. The paper summarizes the Civic IDEA’s China Watch reports and measures the growing Chinese influence in critical infrastructure and defense sectors of the country by reviewing the misconduct related to the notorious and blacklisted Chinese companies (CEFC, Sinohydro, Motor Sich, Nuctech, CRBC) actively operating in Georgia within the BRI. Moreover, the research stresses that these Chinese companies usually mediate the massive corruption schemes orchestrated by the Chinese state officials and local business and political elites. This occasion explains the ignorance of the Georgian government in failing to investigate the company’s reputation with which they are signing the
MoUs and handing the projects critical for Georgia’s natural security.
Artak Kyurumyan, an independent expert and a chairman of the board of Open Society Foundation, discusses Sino-Armenian political relations and the performance of Armenian investments in the People’s Republic of China. The paper highpoints the diversity of opinions in the experts’ community, as some believe that Armenia has working relations with China, while others think that Armenian-Chinese relations are in stagnation. Armenian authorities don’t have a vision or strategy on how to build ties with China. Russia had and has a significant impact on Armenian foreign policy and holds leverages to influence them. For several years different Armenian governments were optimistic about the Armenian-Chinese joint venture Shanxi-Nairit. Shanxi Nairit does not utilize its full capacity and could not cover its costs and accumulated huge losses. After 2018 the representatives of the Revolutionary government were also represented in the board of Shanxi Nairit and were assuring that they are doing important job. However, large parts of the Armenian community think that government officials use such opportunities to travel and don’t create any substantial
value added.
Gubad Ibadoghlu, a senior policy analyst of the Economic Research Center, covers China’s mounting interests and influence in Azerbaijan, emphasizing the boosted trade between China and Azerbaijan and between China and Europe through the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, which forms an integral part of the Belt and Road construction and serves as a critical bridge that connects the eastern and western ends of Eurasia. Moreover, Azerbaijan is devoted to building a new corridor for cross-border transportation designed to cut through the territory of Armenia to join up the Azerbaijan mainland and the Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan. For China, this corridor will serve as the second South Caucasus route leading to Europe via Armenia, Nakhchivan, and Turkey. Azerbaijan’s economic diversification policy and China’s willingness to transfer industrial capacity facilitate more extensive economic cooperation between the two countries. Besides, China has failed to close several critical financial agreements at the governmental level to boost economic ties with Azerbaijan. There are currently no agreements on currency swaps, industrial transfer, or free trade between the two countries.
Research on informing the people of Kazakhstan about the activities of Chinese companies in the Kazakhstani extractive sector belongs to Danil Bekturganov, a political scientist and a Director of NGO “Civil Expertise” in Kazakhstan, who analyzes the coverage of activities of Chinese companies in the extractive sector of Kazakhstan by Kazakh media. In addition to analyzing the awareness of citizens, investigated the availability of statements and other documents issued by the government of Kazakhstan related to Chinese investments and BRI. The study examines specific cases related to the impact of the activities of Chinese extractive companies on local communities, and social, economic and environmental consequences of these activities. Mr. Bekturganov argues that Kazakhstan is one of the key places in the implementation of the BRI. Large Chinese extractive and construction companies operate on the territory of the country, railway and road routes, including the “Western Europe – Western China” corridor, pass through Kazakhstan’s territory. One of the important parts of the BRI implementation is the informing of Kazakhstani citizens about the initiative and about the opportunities, provided to businesses and local communities. The absence or lack of information gives rise to a large number of myths and phobias, and does not contribute to increasing public confidence in the presence of Chinese business in Kazakhstan. Another important aspect is the environmental impact of Chinese projects, which should be objectively and publicly assessed.
Bakytbek Satybekov, an expert and a co-chairperson of the National Open Government Forum in the Kyrgyz Republic explains China’s “debt trap” diplomacy in Kyrgyzstan by highlighting the obvious signs of the presence of such a policy in the country. Author starts with the description of a term China’s “debt trap” with examples of experience of other countries. After that mr, Satybekov describes history of Kyrgyz borrowings from China with details, such as purposes of loans, financial and other conditions and later emphasizes evolution of Kyrgyz debt management strategy with emphasis on limitation of share on a creditor in debt portfolio. At last, he provides the audience with the analysis of impact (outcome) the Chinese “debt trap” could bring to Kyrgyzstan.
Umedjon Majidi, political analyst and a postgraduate of the University of Sussex covers the topic of Corrosive inflows to the Republic of Tajikistan and how Chinese investments undermine good governance and transparency in Central Asian region. Corrosive capital coined by Center for International Private Enterprise based in Washington DC is defined the term “corrosive capital” to more clearly label financing that lacks transparency, accountability, and market orientation flowing from authoritarian regimes into new and transitioning democracies. It applies directly to big authoritarian countries which play a key role in Central Asia, they are Russia, China that lack true forms of transparency, accountability, good governance in their capital granting schemes. This paper based on wide variety of publications in various languages analyzes specifically how People’s Republic of China within its strategy of Belt and Road Initiative in Tajikistan brings bad governance schemes to Tajikistan local and national governance institutions in contrast of western countries when the capital and funds come usually with conditions to reform a local governance attached.
Farkhod Tolipov, a director of the non-governmental Research Institution “Bilim Karvoni” (“Caravan of Knowledge”) in Tashkent, finalizes the collection of articles with his input “China’s Power Projection in Central Asia and its Geopolitical Implications: The Case of Uzbekistan”. The state’s power projection capability means its ability to exert influence on other states by utilizing its real power. This utilization of power can take different forms from diplomatic communications and political pressure to open demonstration and application, separately or in combination, of elements of soft and hard power. So this paper is constructed around the main question as to what we know about China’s power projection undertakings in the Central Asian region with some more focus on Uzbekistan. Public and experts’ opinions in Central Asian countries are quite ambiguous about Chinese influence in the region; Sino-phobia and Sinophilia coexist among people, officials, and experts. In particular, Beijing’s repressive attitude towards Uighurs in Xingjian province also affected the perception of China by Central Asians. China as a great power cannot, but pursues great-power politics, which per se can bring with it opportunities and challenges for neighboring areas including the Central Asian region. Moreover, all great powers historically have always competed with each other and this competition, in turn, always caused significant geopolitical implications.
IRI report 2021 “A WORLD SAFE FOR THE PARTY, CHINA’S AUTHORITARIAN INFLUENCE AND THE DEMOCRATIC RESPONSE” was published through the partnership with Civic IDEA from Georgia
Within the frames of the BRIDGE initiative, Civic IDEA has contributed to the creation of the International Republican Institute’s 2021 report “A WORLD SAFE FOR THE PARTY, CHINA’S AUTHORITARIAN INFLUENCE AND THE DEMOCRATIC RESPONSE”. The research includes the case studies of Nepal, Panama, Kenya, Montenegro, Georgia, and Greece and exposes the impact of CCP influence operations on fragile democracies around the world.
Georgia’s case focuses on its strategic geolocation, making it an essential part of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” in China’s BRI. However, Sino-Georgian economic cooperation boosted through the BRI, FTA, and various dual agreements have yielded mixed results. “BRI-related investments by Chinese state-owned or government-linked companies in Georgia have spurred infrastructure developments while fueling corruption and rent-seeking behavior among Georgian politicians. Many large projects undertaken by Chinese companies are left unfinished or are beset by financial and logistical problems.”
Although China is more perceived as an economic partner of Georgia, the Sino-Georgian cooperation has gone beyond the economic sphere covering other areas such as media, CSO, culture, and academia. The various initiatives implemented through these domains influence Georgian public opinion about China and serve the CCP’s broader foreign policy goals.
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The BRIDGE initiative, funded by the National Endowment for Democracy, works to bolster democratic resilience to foreign authoritarian influence. By increasing awareness of authoritarian tactics and equipping stakeholders with the tools and resources to overcome them, BRIDGE programming supports at-risk countries to safeguard democratic institutions and advance their democratic development.
MAPPING RESEARCH: COMPARING FOREIGN INFLUENCE IN GEORGIA
As a part of an initiative of the “European Values Center for Security Policy”, Civic IDEA together with the other Georgian partners (Georgian Reform Association (GRASS), Media Development Fund (MDF), and the Atlantic Council Digital Expertise Research Laboratory (DFRLab)) participated in the creation of the Eastern European Program Report “Mapping research: Comparing foreign influence in Georgia”. The Report monitors foreign country influences in Georgia, whether in state institutions, NGOs, Media, political parties, or the Church. This paper aims to bring attention to a broad spectrum of problems, as well as campaigns and activities implemented and sponsored by third countries, ranging from political infiltration to corrosive capital-flows with political goals.
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“Insights from Young Scholars and Peacebuilders from the Caucasus” Vol. 2
“Insights from Young Scholars and Peacebuilders from the Caucasus” is the collection of articles and research papers developed within the frames of Civic IDEA’s and Berlin-based Corridors – Dialogue through Cooperation’s joint workshop. Sixteen young experts from Abkhazia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Russia participated in the project, which combined academic input, practical training, and regional exchange. This publication consists of ten selected papers that have been developed, presented, discussed, and reviewed during the project. It provides the reader with first-hand insights, analysis, and opinions from young scholars and peacebuilders from the Caucasus region. In this way, the edited volume facilitates the exchange of knowledge both within the region and internationally.
Sincere gratitude to our engaged colleagues, inspiring and courageous participants, and the German Federal Foreign Office for its generous funding.
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