We are particularly grateful to our Taiwanese partner organization Doublethink Lab, for advancing global research and collaborations on PRC influence in Georgia and worldwide.
Secretary General of the China Communist Party, China’s President Xi Jinping one of the leaders who did not make any foreign visits since the outbreak of virus Covid-19 from January 2020. The situation has changed last week.
…he couldn’t miss a trip to Central Asia:
On 14 September Xi Jinping visits Kazakhstan to participate at the Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions in Nur-Sultan (currently Astana). China has still complicated relations with some of Central Asian countries, namely Kyrgyz Republic and Kazakhstan due to anti-Chinese sentiments, failed China investment (Bishkek heating project), ethnic Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Uyghur maltreatment and imprisonment of ethnic Kazakhs relatives in Xinjiang. The importance of Kazakhstan
Why this trip of Xi Jinping to Central Asia is such a big deal?
For Kazakhstan, Temur Umarov, Carnegie’s Fellow suggests to be more timely, especially voices coming from Kremlin over neutral (or pro-Ukraine) position of Kazakhstan over Russia-Ukraine war. Kazakhstan is an important partner for China – Belt and Road Initiative launched in Kazakhstan’s Astana in 2013.
Kazakhstan importance to China is played by the transit potential and connectivity of Chinese cargo to Europe. Since Russia launched “military operation” in Ukraine, the whole West, especially European Union stand against Russia and the countries using Russia as a transit. Russia is totally isolated from global markets and Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan consider China as a great alternative to Russia as a trade partner and ally. Kazakhstan has a bug number of ethnic Russians in the north. There is a concern that Russia may want to “liberate” them from Kazakhstan.
Chinese cargo trains going through Kazakhstan (then to Azerbaijan on the Caspian Sea) increased up-to 6 times. In 2020, the two main cargo transit hubs on the border of Kazakhstan and China, Alashankou and Khorgos, was increased significantly in volumes compared to pre-pandemic. It was also emphasized the importance of the “Middle Corridor,” linking Kazakh rail to Turkmenistan, Iran, Turkey, and onwards to Europe. In 2022, about 2013 container trains passed the Kazakh territory, which is 25% more than the previous year. From Kazakhstan to Europe 1,147 trains were operated, which is a year-to-year increase of 14%. In the opposite direction 866 trains were sent, a notable increase of 43%.
The ensuring security of the global supply chain is one of the development priorities, putting importance on the role of the trains as “emergency measures” stabilizing unexpected events affecting sea-based trade was mentioned in the recent report on the China-Europe train by China Railway.
On 16 September 2022, President Xi Jinping attended the 22nd Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at the Samarkand Congress Center. President Xi delivered an important statement entitled “Ride on the Trend of the Times and Enhance Solidarity and Cooperation to Embrace a Better Future”. Leaders of SCO member states signed and released the Samarkand Declaration of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization
SCO was founded in 2001 in Shanghai in post-border delimitation process of China with Central Asia and Russia, today is dubbed as a security organization of the East (as an alliance against the NATO) benefits both China and Russia. SCO serves the unique platform where China is played a leading role to bring together Russia, China, Central Asian countries also India, Pakistan and potentially Iran and Turkey in the future.
Some statements and documents were issued on protecting international food and energy security, tackling climate change, and keeping supply chains secure, stable and diversified; a memorandum of obligations on Iran’s SCO membership was signed; the procedure for Belarus’ accession was started; MOUs granting Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar the status of SCO dialogue partners were signed; agreement was reached on admitting Bahrain, the Maldives, the UAE, Kuwait and Myanmar as new dialogue partners; and a series of resolutions were adopted, including a Comprehensive Plan for the Implementation of the SCO Treaty on Long-Term Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation for 2023-2027. It was decided at the meeting that India will assume the SCO rotating presidency for 2022-2023.
Taiwan, Xinjiang and One China policy
Considering after 3 years of “lockdown”, the analysts link his trip to Central Asia as a reaction to Nancy Pelosi, US House of Representative Speaker to Taiwan in August; Russia has already expressed that that trip was provocative and dangerous of peace and stability in Asia; Others believe that it is a time for showing off the strength before the next Party Session scheduled next month where he to be reelected for the next term.
China is pursuing “reunification” of Taiwan as a Republic of China to People’s Republic of China even a military scenario to be involved. If a war breaks out over Taiwan, China will be unable to secure energy supplies by sea. China has turned its focus to Central Asia as part of Chinese strategic thinking, so the neighboring countries recognize Republic of China as an integral part of PRC. In China senior leadership circles, discussion about fighting against external interference meaning western aid to Russia-Ukraine war and supporting Taiwan.
This year the EU Parliament adopted a resolution where it describes China policies in Xinjiang as a genocide against Uyghur people. Based on this background Xi’s visit to Central Asia is the important diplomatic trips. Central Asian states history and culture is inseparable from Xinjiang and share a 3,000-km border with Xinjiang, and it requires a constant maintenance from Beijing to ensure there are no cross-border sympathizers to those opposing its extreme policies in Xinjiang.
Umedjon Majidi – Author of the blog series, Expert/Research Consultant, Civic IDEA
A few days ago, the Central Asian region became the epicenter of the world’s attention due to Xi Jinping’s historic visit, which is his first post-pandemic trip outside the People’s Republic of China. Xi’s Central Asian voyage started in Kazakhstan, where he landed on September 14 and met with the Kazakhstani President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, together with the delegation including the Deputy Prime Minister, Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan and the Mayor of Nur-Sultan. The two sides discussed energy, health and trade relations and agreed on signing numerous new bilateral agreements. Two countries issued a joint statement according to which Kazakhstan supports the PRC’s claim over Taiwan and stay loyal to the “One China Principle”. “During this short period (30 years), we have established strong interstate ties. I sincerely thank you for your support for Kazakhstan’s economic development and our international initiatives,” – Tokayev told the Chinese leader. The same day, after ensuring mutual understanding and support with Kazakhstan, Xi Jinping flew to Uzbekistan to attend a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and held bilateral meetings with several leaders, of which Russian President Vladimir Putin is particularly noteworthy. Prior to the meeting with the Russian president, the CCP leader met with President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan to likewise Kazakhstan, safeguard their long-term partnership and shared future at the bilateral level. The president of Uzbekistan expressed his firm and unequivocal support for the one-China principle concerning its core interests in Taiwan. On September 16, the CCP leader met with the Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan and pledged “political mutual trust”. On the same day, Xi Jinping also held bilateral talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, where the latter showed his willingness to obstruct the US sanctions with the help of the PRC and SCO. Xi himself mentioned that he expects the growth of their comprehensive partnership and showed support to “Iran in safeguarding its sovereignty and national dignity”.
However, it is interesting to know why the Chinese leader specifically chose Central Asia as his first destination after two years of lockdown. Unsurprisingly, his behavior carries more broad and more strategic meaning for the country and his party. His message was concise and clear, addressing that in these challenging times when Russia’s role is declining in Central Asia, PRC shows readiness to play the role of the leading global power in the region and seeks to reconfirm this objective with the visit of the Chinese leader. CCP’s foreign ambitions have always aimed to link countries to China through economic and infrastructure projects. The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative has served this goal since 2013 and connected countries from the South Pacific through Asia to the Middle East, Europe and Africa through various trade routes. With his visit, Xi guaranteed the PRC’s devotion and considerable financial investment in the global initiative. Central Asia, and particularly Kazakhstan, has played an essential role during the nine-year bilateral cooperation under the BRI. The region itself is conceived being a gateway connecting the PRC with Europe. It is not surprising that in a world full of tense circumstances, China does not lose interest in Central Asia and is always ready to expand its influence in the region. Central Asia itself proved to be reasonably stable without any significant power competition compared to the rest of the world. Accordingly, China is positioning this region as a favorable hub for its companies and long-term investments.
On the other hand, the expectations of the Central Asian countries about Xi’s visit being a vow to deepen mutual understanding and trust, and bring bilateral economic bonds closer, were also justified by Xi’s first and historical visit since the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic. While the region is closely dependent on Moscow in various sectors and Russia itself is embroiled in a war with Ukraine, sanctioned by the entire West (and not only by the Western countries but also by the leading Asian democracies), and waned on the regional level, Central Asia may consider the PRC as an effective alternative to Russia in the future, especially in terms of the economic cooperation. Accordingly, the statements made by the Central Asian leaders during Xi’s visit and their shared future expectations for survival reflect this strategic intention.
Meanwhile, the Chinese leader used the SCO summit in Uzbekistan to meet face-to-face with the Russian president. Given China’s strong opposition to sanctions against Russia and the urgency to acquire more supporters on the Taiwan issue, Xi Jinping vowed his readiness to work with President Putin and pursue their shared interests in defiance of the West, as Beijing and Moscow both perceive the SCO as a counterbalance to the US alliances in the region. “China is willing to make efforts with Russia to assume the role of great powers, and play a guiding role to inject stability and positive energy into a world rocked by social turmoil,” Xi told Putin during the sideline meeting. It is important to note that despite China’s publicly announced policy of restraint on Russian aggression against Ukraine, it covertly continued economic and political cooperation with Kremlin even before this meeting. To be clear about PRC’s positioning in the Russian-Ukraine war, it is not accusing Russia solely but the US-let North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which, according to Chinese perception, has provoked and manipulated the already tense situation between the conflicting parties. At this meeting, Xi Jinping reiterated PRC’s position and sought an assertion from Putin that war will not further undermine regional security. Nonetheless, on September 21, several days after this in-person meeting, President Putin declared the partial mobilization of the Russian military, and the mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, announced the preparation of the first recruitment center in Moscow for foreigners willing to fight along with the Russian soldiers against Ukraine. It is unknown whether the meeting with Xi Jinping and the “strong mutual support” voiced by the Chinese leader involved the narrative of military assistance to Russia amid the Western military aid to Ukraine. However, Putin’s subsequent actions certainly give a reason to suppose so. Surprisingly enough, the same day, the Chinese leader gave instructions to the People’s Liberation Army of China for military readiness due to the escalation of the situation over Taiwan.
Noticeably, foreign interests are accompanied by Xi’s personal intentions and ambitions. On October 16, 2022, the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will gather in Beijing, where the party’s top leadership for the following five years will be elected. The congress is particularly noteworthy as the current leader, Xi Jinping, is likely to take a third term, breaking the “seven up, eight down” rule, according to which those leaders who are 68 and above are expected to step down and Xi Jinping has already exceeded the age limit. Experts anticipate that Xi is already preparing for the third term despite this political tradition, as his rule has dramatically transformed the PRC’s political landscape. His visit to Central Asia came ahead of the congress to prove his confidence in being the PRC’s most influential leader since Mao, heading the anti-Western alliance of nations.
Ani Kintsurashvili – Author of the Article, Senior Researcher, Civic IDEA
Civic IDEA is pleased to share with you the 10th China Watch report related to another Chinese company operating in Georgia, China State Construction Engineering Corporation Ltd. (so-called CSCEC), and reviews its scandals and misconduct that occurred in Georgia and worldwide.
CSCEC is one of the largest Chinese state construction companies, founded in 1982. Since then, it has operated in more than 100 countries worldwide. The company’s main activities comprise real estate, construction financing, operation and engineering (housing and infrastructure), as well as design and survey. This company has been embroiled in numerous scandals in the past two decades. More precisely, the CSCEC and its subsidies have been exposed to corruption and fraud schemes in the US, Philippines, Pakistan, Hungary, and several other countries and have been blacklisted by different state and international institutions.
Read more about the company’s reputation and activities in our report: ?
Civic IDEA has the honor to share with the audience the second part of the series of Collection of Articles under the name “From Caspian to Black Sea: Economic, Academic and Digital Threats posed by the PRC”. Publication in front of you is the second edition of a collective effort by Civic IDEA and its partners and distinguished experts from the region to analyze and debate the Chinese activities in their respective countries in various fields, be it academia, business, politics, or other state matters. This time, the publication was inspired by the outstanding work of our Taiwanese partner Doublethink Lab about the Chinese influence operations assembled in China Index-2021, to be followed at https://china-index.io. This regularly updated web tracker allows all interested in monitoring and measuring PRC influence around the Globe.
The contributor authors to the second issue of the collection of articles are the following:
Tinatin Khidasheli – Chairperson, Civic IDEA
Ani Kintsurashvili – Senior Researcher, Civic IDEA
Vusal Guliyev – Fellow, the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University
Gubad Ibadoghlu – Senior Visiting Fellow, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
Umedjon Majidi – Anti Corruption Expert, Sarajevo, BIH
Gia Jandieri – Director, New Economic School of Georgia
On June 2-4, in Munich, the event “New European Geostrategic Reality — Is Enlargement Part of It?” was held in collaboration with the Bled Strategic Forum.
The conference focused on themes of a new strategic reality since Russian aggression on Ukraine has changed the geopolitical and geostrategic reality of Europe forever. The speakers discussed enlargement difficulties and the future of this policy, which has been one of the key historic tools in securing European stability and prosperity. The conference was moderated by Peter Grk, Secretary General of the Bled Strategic Forum.
Civic IDEA published the second volume of the report “Chinese Leverage in Georgia’s Academic, CSO and Media Sectors: Post-Covid Reality”. The current paper reviews Georgia – Chinese cooperation in Academia, that is, among various universities, academic programs, scholarships, etc., analyzing realities created by Covid Pandemic and its consequences. Moreover, it gives a comparative analysis by evaluating foreign trends and policies toward Chinese malign academic activities. Mainly, the report focuses on the cases of the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, Hungary, Serbia, the US, and Sweden to demonstrate that, like other essential domains, Academia can be exploited by foreign actors.
The report is implemented with the support of the National Endowment for Democracy and the US Embassy in Tbilisi, in cooperation with the Central European Institute of Asian Studies.
On April 25, Civic IDEA attended the online event devoted to launching the China Index (Beta) Website.
The China Index questionnaire was developed in consultation with a committee of scholars in China studies. The index focuses on PRC’s efforts to influence media, foreign policy, academia, local politics, economy, technology, society, military, and law enforcement. Each domain contains key indicators to assess the PRC’s influence in a country. Civic IDEA partnered up with other think tanks and NGOs located in different geographical regions and, being supervised by the Taiwanese think tank “Doublethinklab,” has covered the regions of South Caucasus and Central Asia. Overall, Doublethinklab was able to map out the PRC’s influence in 38 countries in the pilot edition of the project.
