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A drop in the ocean Chinese investments in Georgia

Following the publication of the Sino Georgian strategic cooperation statement, discussions on the ups and downs of this document have become a focal point in the Georgian media. This is not surprising since the issue concerns one of the largest and most ambitious states in the world, and its foreign policy moves are constantly at the center of attention.

Yet, a quick look at the China-related stories in the Georgian media highlights a distinct line of internal political resistance and the particular media outlet’s political inclination inclination. Yet due to the limited availability of information in Georgian, people form their perceptions of China based solely on what their chosen media source conveys.

In order to spread propaganda messages and narratives crafted by the Chinese Communist Party, dedicated programs air on various channels from time to time, exclusively featuring news about the People’s Republic of China. Recently, these programs incorporated exclusive interviews with the Chinese ambassador, directly conveying the agenda and objectives of the propaganda. Georgian Dream MPs and propagandists echo the narratives of the Chinese Communist Party with remarkable precision. “The fascination by economic cooperation with China” is one of their favorite talking points, and they repeat with absolute conviction that only “fools refuse” investments from China, for which the Georgian government works tirelessly.

Hereby, we need to emphasize that genuine success in economic relations can be gauged by a surge in direct investments and heightened interest from numerous companies entering the country, resulting in the creation of additional jobs and increased incomes fueled by external capital. It’s important to note that when observing the infrastructure developments such as roads, bridges, and tunnels in Georgia, a substantial portion of the funding originates from the Georgian taxpayers, specifically allocated in the state budget. These Chinese companies execute projects at the Georgian nations’ behest, being funded and directed by the Georgian government. As a result, their involvement has no correlation with the “growing” economic cooperation and the “enhanced economic appeal” of the country, which is primarily attributed to the successful work of the government. 

The truth is best reflected by official statistics, and nothing is more accurate and reliable than that. Without any additional explanations and interpretations, we present the data published by the Department of Statistics of Georgia over the years regarding foreign direct investments. This data unmistakably illustrates the government’s complete failure to attract Chinese investments, particularly in contrast to the lofty claims of significant interest and “immeasurably deepened” relations.

FDI from PRC
2010 – 2022 in thousands USD

As can be clearly seen in the present table, China’s investments in the country are so insignificant and meaningless that it is impossible even to consider them seriously. Meanwhile, in the wake of the government’s “effective steps”, even those minor investments are falling year by year. For example, in recent years, investments have decreased almost twice compared to 2018. The benchmark for 2020 and 2021 is simply negative. Naturally, the main argument of the opponents regarding the years 2020 and 2021 starts with the “COVID-19” pandemic, although the pandemic did not prevent Georgia’s real strategic partners from investing in the country. See the corresponding table.

FDI by countries
compared to the PRC.
2020 – 2021 in thousands USD

The share of a country with a huge and “most successful” economy in Georgia’s investment basket is extremely small, and the government’s policy, which promises huge results, has led nowhere since 2016. Investments made by the People’s Republic of China were definitely characterized by growth; in 2013, it exceeded 100 Million USD, and in the following year, 2014, it doubled and reached 221 million USD. However, after that, a sharp decrease began, and its average figure is a completely symbolic and meaningless reality. The table below clearly shows the dynamics of 2011-2022:

The share of PRC
FDI to Georgia.
2011 – 2022

The truth is that, China does not appear among the top 10 major investors in Georgia during the tenure of the “Georgian Dream” party in government:

Top 10 countries by FDI to Georgia
2015 – 2022
The PRC is not among them.
in thousands USD

Mathematics is the best friend for unveiling the truth. The numbers do not lie and do not perfectly describe the partnership, interests interests, and foreign policy objectives of states.

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Civic IDEA at CITW 2023

On December 5-7, the Civic IDEA team participated in the China In The World Summit 2023, organized by the Taiwanese Non-governmental organization Doublethink Lab in Taipei, Taiwan.

Civic IDEA’s Senior Researcher Ani Kintsurashvili and Executive Assistant Salome Svanidze, together with Danil Bekturganov, CEO of “Civil Expertise” Kazakhstan, conducted a session on “Influence and Powerplay amid the Russia- Ukraine war: Is it possible for the PRC to dominate Central Asia?”.

The discussion delved into the nuanced role that China plays in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, oscillating between projecting itself as a “peacemaker” and indirectly supporting Russia. This dual role has added complexity to China’s global diplomacy and had a profound impact on the shifting geopolitical dynamics in Eurasia. Against the backdrop of Central Asian states delicately balancing between Russia and the West, the conflict accelerated the reassessment of their dependence on Moscow, presenting openings for both China and Western influences. The session also anticipated Kazakhstan’s distinctive and assertive stance against Russia, revealing variations in responses among the Central Asian Republics.

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What are the risks of cooperation with the Chinese Communist Party Television?

CCTV’s influence extends beyond its programming, as it maintains close ties with the various units of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Therefore, the party-state determines the type of information and news accessible to the PRC’s 1.4 billion citizens through CCTV.

The same propaganda narratives were aired during the COVID-19 crisis. CCTV website claimed in 2020 that the U.S. military-operated biological laboratories that conduct covert development of biological weapons span the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa and extend across 27 former Soviet republics, including Georgia and Ukraine. More precisely, based on their article, the U.S. possesses a research network comprising 15 biological laboratories in Ukraine alone, in addition to 3 laboratories and 11 smaller institutes in Georgia.

Hence, the collaboration between any Georgian TV channel and China Central Television (CCTV), the principal propaganda apparatus of the CCP, is entirely inappropriate. This partnership raises concerns as it could potentially expose the local media outlets to disinformation, inadvertently contribute to the dissemination of fake news, and consequently pose a threat not only to the national security of the country but also jeopardize its foreign policy objectives of aligning with Western alliances.

What are the risks of cooperation with the Chinese Communist Party Television? Read More »

Georgia’s Path to Europe

In Washington DC, on December 1, 2023, the National Endowment for Democracy and the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center organise the event, Georgia’s Path to Europe.

Tinatin Khidasheli, the Chairperson of Civic IDEA is one of the speakers on the panel at this event. 

The European Commission’s November recommendation that EU candidacy status be granted to Georgia is the latest in a string of hard-won victories the Georgian people have achieved in recent months. In March, hundreds of thousands of Georgians took to the streets and forced the government to abandon a draconian Russian-style NGO law. In October, a controversial partisan gambit to impeach President Salome Zurabishvili failed after vocal opposition both in the parliament and throughout civil society. The loudest voices pushing back against democratic decline in the country belong to youth, civil society, and parliamentarians such as the women on this panel. Women from different political parties are coming together to highlight the importance of expanding political participation and keeping European integration the nation’s top priority.

Event Link 👇

Georgia’s Path to Europe

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Ani Kintsurashvili featured on the Strasbourg University Center for Journalism Education website

Senior researcher of Civic IDEA, Ani Kintsurashvili has been featured on the website of the university center for journalism education of the University of Strasbourg, discussing the presence of the notorious Chinese companies in Georgia’s infrastructure sector and their shady dealings with the Georgian business and political elites. She highlighted that Georgia’s 2024 elections will also be decisive. “If the government stays in power, the Chinese companies will continue to flood in and win contracts.”

Please visit the following link ?

https://www.cuej.info/dossiers-multimedias/la-georgie-sur-le-fil/georgie-quand-un-pays-du-caucase-devient-un-hub-du?fbclid=IwAR2HlgXsHVTMQk01gdBlLGTIwqah_7AkUKOBhL2k2Nsezh6Txa4ulCE7WyE

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The authorities fail to respond to the sanctioning of judges and former chief prosecutor

We think that the Georgian authorities are apparently protecting the persons sanctioned by the U.S. Naturally, such an approach causes further damage to the country’s reputation and to the trust of international partners towards the Georgian authorities.

We call on the Georgian authorities to stop protecting the interests of the sanctioned persons and distancing the country from the Western space by doing so, provide an adequate response, and take concrete steps to redress the damage caused to the country by the fact of sanctioning.

Signatory organizations:

  1. Transparency International Georgia (TI Georgia)
  2. Georgian Young Lawyers’ Association (GYLA)
  3. International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED)
  4. Institute for Development of Freedom of Information (IDFI)
  5. Social Justice Center (SJC)
  6. Rights Georgia
  7. Human Rights Center (HRC)
  8. Open Society Georgia Foundation (OSGF)
  9. Georgian Court Watch
  10. Democracy Research Institute (DRI)
  11. Sapari
  12. Civic IDEA
  13. Europe-Georgia Institute (EGI)
  14. Economic Policy Research Center (EPRC)
  15. Media Development Foundation (MDF)
  16. Society and Banks
  17. Green Alternative
  18. Equality Movement
  19. Tbilisi Pride
  20. GrlzWave
  21. Georgian Democracy Initiative (GDI)
  22. Atlantic Council of Georgia
  23. Democracy Defenders
  24. Franklin Club
  25. Georgia’s Future Academy
  26. Reforms and Research Group
  27. Chavchavadze Center
  28. Institute of Democracy
  29. Research Institute Gnomon Wise
  30. Civic Engagement and Activism Center (CEAC)
  31. Tsertili
  32. Promote Georgia
  33. Kvemo Kartli Media
  34. Association Deserving Old Age
  35. Civic Movement for Freedom
  36. Media and Communication Educational-Research Center “Media Voice”
  37. Child Welfare League
  38. Abkhazia news
  39. Generations Empowerment Network
  40. Women Fund “Sukhumi”
  41. May Movement
  42. Women’s Initiatives Supporting Group (WISG)
  43. GEUT
  44. Employment and Training Center
  45. Civic Movement Chiatura of the Future
  46. Komli
  47. Civic Activity Center – Lakmus
  48. Women’s Fund in Georgia (WFG)
  49. EuroClub Kvareli
  50. Democracy Index – Sakartvelo
  51. Association IDPs for IDPs

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To outperform China, EU’s Global Gateway should underscore its democratic ambitions

This week’s Global Gateway Forum offers the EU a chance to show global leaders how a focus on democratic values and transparency distinguishes it from China’s Belt and Road. To succeed, this focus should be established from the start, write Sam van der Staak and Paul Maassen.

On 25 October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will host global leaders for the EU’s first Global Gateway Forum. The 300-billion-euro investment fund aims to be not only more effective but also more democratic than China’s competing Belt and Road initiative.
However, to outperform China and win the hearts and minds of citizens globally, Global Gateway needs to better underscore its commitment to democratic principles.
The EU’s Global Gateway initiative promises to invest 300 billion euros in digital, energy, and transport sectors and strengthen health, education, and research systems across the world.
This week’s Global Gateway Forum offers the EU an opportunity to show global leaders how a focus on values distinguishes it from China’s Belt and Road. Since its launch in 2013, China’s flagship investment vehicle has left a trail of corruption scandals and human rights violations.

Sam van der Staak is the director for Europe at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA). Paul Maassen is the chief country support and secretary-general for Europe at the Open Government Partnership (OGP).

Link ?

https://www.euractiv.com/section/development-policy/opinion/to-outperform-china-eus-global-gateway-should-underscore-its-democratic-ambitions/

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Tinatin Khidasheli attended the “Forum 2000”

On October 15-17, 2023 chairperson of Civic IDEA, Tinatin Khidasheli attended the “Forum 2000” held in Prague, where she participated as a speaker in two discussions.

On October 16 she participated in a panel called, “Claiming the Center in Georgia “. This panel highlights women politicians in Georgia addressing political polarization by promoting centrist parties and parliamentary collaboration. Empowering women is vital for overcoming personal rivalries and restoring democratic reform and European integration. While the Georgian population favors European integration, the government builds ties with Russia and China. Recent polarization between the UNM and GD overshadowed smaller center parties, limiting political representation. The October 2024 elections offer a chance for change with new collaboration-friendly rules. Young women leaders such as those on this panel can renew Georgian politics through cooperation and representing new voices.

On October 17 Tinatin Khidasheli participated in a panel called, ,, Is the Chinese World Replacing Russkiy Mir in Central Asia and the Caucasus?’’ While the Kremlin may pretend Russia is still a global power capable of imposing its will on its neighbours, in reality, Russia’s capacity to project real power is weakening and will continue to wane. Meanwhile, China is systematically penetrating Central Asia and the Caucasus, regions previously thought to be ”Russian turff” and filling the vacuum. Even Russia is increasingly dependent on China. Europe, as usual, is behind the curve. With so much of Europe’s attention to Ukraine, this encroachment by China into the Caucasus and Central Asia has been overlooked. What is the current state of affairs? What can be done to draw attention to the risks of growing Chinese influence in the region? Alongside participation in the panel, Tinatin Khidasheli leads the Forum 2000 China working group.

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Government’s goal is to sell increased Sino-Georgian cooperation as a counterbalance to its total failure on the Western front.

In July this year, Georgian experts and the political community were surprised when, during the visit of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili to China, the two sides issued a joint statement on the establishment of a Strategic Partnership. The document has been criticised by experts for its perceived imbalance between Chinese and Georgian interests and concerns.

This month, Prime Minister Garibashvili announced visa-free travel for Chinese citizens and the government’s intention to increase the number of direct flights to China to “further facilitate tourism.” This was followed by statements from Georgian officials that they would welcome Chinese investment in the strategically important infrastructure project for Georgia, the Anaklia deep-sea port. Indeed, today the Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development, Levan Davitashvili, revealed that the Sino-Singaporean consortium has been selected as one of the two finalists in the selection process for the Anaklia port private partnership.

Against the backdrop of ambivalent relations with Georgia’s strategic partners – the EU and the US – these developments raise concerns and question marks. What does it all mean, and what are the implications for Georgia’s established foreign policy priorities?

Armed with these questions, we turned to Tinatin (Tina) Khidasheli, chair of the Georgian think-tank Civic Idea, which studies Sino-Georgian relations. Tina Khidasheli is a former Georgian Defense Minister and former Member of Parliament.

Civil.ge:Georgia recently announced a visa-free regime for Chinese citizens “to boost trade, investment, and tourism” alongside the establishment of a “Strategic Partnership” with China. While this move has been met with both praise and criticism, what is your assessment? What potential benefits and risks do you see for Georgia in this decision, especially considering the country’s aspirations for NATO and EU integration?

For a country like Georgia, which has a very flexible visa policy, the “boosting trade, investment and tourism” argument is pure speculation. The visa regime has never prevented Chinese investors from coming to Georgia, as the process is very easy, cheap and hassle-free. It is more of a political statement than a practical step.

After issuing a statement on strategic cooperation, the Georgian government felt the need to act and, without looking at the actual consequences of the action, came up with this idea as a first step with a political flavor, almost similar to the announcement of the first Chinese-run World Trade Expo on 23-25 September. We will see many initiatives in the coming weeks leading up to the Silk Road Forum at the end of October.

The bigger problem with all these decisions, including the establishment of a visa-free regime, is that even in dealing with a country like China, the Georgian government has no concrete medium- or long-term plan, development strategy or risk assessment documents. We do not see any planning for medium- or long-term goals and outcomes that the government wants to achieve, but a very concrete domestic agenda goal to sell increased Sino-Georgian cooperation as a counterbalance to the government’s total failure on the Western front, be it with the EU or the US.

Civil.ge:Given the commitment made by the government of Georgia in its agreement with China, particularly regarding adherence to the ‘one-China principle,’ support for initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI), and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) and considering other European countries’ decisions to withdraw from initiatives like the BRI what is your perspective on the potential implications of such a commitment?

Again, these are all political decisions so far, without any particular substance or understanding of what the actual results will be for Georgia. I do not expect these principles to have any immediate practical effect on the Sino-Georgian affair, nor do I expect any immediate reactions from the West. The fact that the Georgian government, without any consultation with the Parliament or the Commander-in-Chief (President of Georgia), took the liberty of joining the GSI, which was created and delivered as an anti-US and anti-NATO strategic statement, says a lot.

The GSI recognizes, approves and promotes the idea of the UN as the one and only institution guaranteeing world peace and prosperity. It denies the importance of other institutions and recognizes the legitimate interests of countries in self-defense in cases and decisions that are absolutely outside the jurisdiction, territory or legitimacy of any particular country. To make the case easier, we need to remember simple facts. The GSI was launched and presented after Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. Accordingly, it is seen as the PRC’s response to the invasion. It accepts the legitimacy of Russia’s claim that NATO’s enlargement threatens Russia and declares it a strategic concern in Russia’s case. It does not explicitly legitimize Russia’s aggression, but it declares these legitimate concerns to be grounds for serious consideration. Georgia has unilaterally recognized the GSI and pledged to abide by its principles, notwithstanding its clear confrontation with our most important long-term strategic partner in defense and security.

It is difficult now to predict exactly what the consequences for Georgia will be, but it is fair to say that the language of the strategic declaration, as well as its release so close to a historic decision on EU candidate status, is a pure provocation by the government. It fits in perfectly with the rhetoric we have recently heard from the mayor of Tbilisi, Kaladze, about NATO.

Civil.ge: The term “strategic partnership” often implies the possibility of military cooperation and intelligence-sharing. How do you view the potential for such cooperation between Georgia and China, and what implications might this have for the region and Georgia’s Western alliances?

So far, there is no visible sign of any planned military/defence cooperation. We have only had two attempts to bring the Chinese into the defense sector: the Motor Sich case and a promise of a military training exchange that never materialized, mainly due to the intervention of Covid.

To some extent, as long as Georgia sticks to the NATO agenda (also for PR purposes), I do not really see the possibility of official Sino-Georgian military cooperation. China does not usually start by moving its military officers or personnel around. Another obstacle is Sino-Russian defense cooperation and joint military training, where again it would be absolutely suicidal for the Georgian government to participate.

As for intelligence sharing, in a sense, we are already doing it by keeping Chinese Nuchtech on our borders. So, making it official in treaties will depend totally on the turn Georgia will make after the 2024 elections.

Civil.ge:It has been suggested that China uses strategic partnerships with small states to exert influence and secure support for its global initiatives. What role do you see Georgia playing in the broader context of China’s Initiatives and its ambitions in the South Caucasus and Central Asia?

It is absolutely clear that the main interests of the PRC lie in Central Asia and the resources of the Caspian Sea. Georgia, by virtue of its geographical and political position, is an integral part of the whole scheme. As I see it, the July 2023 statement on strategic partnership was not so much about the materialization of the huge amount of concrete plans as it was about locking in Georgia as a sphere of interest. I call it the PRC’s master plan to replace “Russki Mir” with Confucius World for the time when all the above principles and plans will be activated.

It should also be mentioned that the statement on strategic partnership goes even deeper and provides that Georgia will coordinate its activities with the PRC at the level of an international organization. Therefore, we should not be surprised if one day Georgia will start voting with the Chinese voice instead of the EU or the US in the UN or other organizations.

Civil.ge:As Civic IDEA closely monitors the ongoing developments in Georgia’s cooperation with China and continues to investigate potential risks and misconduct in various sectors, including infrastructure, economics, and education, could you elaborate on the specific concerns and irregularities that your organization has uncovered during its five years of research? Additionally, what recommendations or measures do you propose for Georgia to address these concerns, enhance transparency, and promote accountability in its relationship with China?

This is a very big question, and you can find all the answers in our reports. Each report has a summary of problems demonstrating the magnitude of misconduct or risks to the country, including corruption risks.

Civil.ge:Given the evolving dynamic in which Russia and China appear to be united in challenging the Western liberal democratic world order, especially as evidenced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and their joint efforts to forge multilateral institutions, and given China’s role in financing Russia’s actions and blocking sanctions against Russia, what strategies or safeguards can Georgia implement to protect its interests and maintain its relations with both China and the West?

We believe in cooperation, so there is nothing in our policy paper recommendations against Sino-Georgian cooperation. There’s always room to do more, and the Georgian government could have successfully worked on mutually beneficial treaties and agreements. The problem with the 31 July statement is that it is absolutely one-sided, and represents the whole spectrum of issues that the PRC is concerned about, but none of them reflect the interests of Georgia. So our recommendation is simple: at least work with the principles of reciprocity in mind when drafting these documents.

But if we look at the bigger picture, it is absolutely clear that Georgia has a chance to become stronger and have more influence with the major regional players only if and when it is supported by the Western alliances and allies. Close cooperation with the EU and the Americans has always helped Georgia to get maximum results from all cooperation agreements with third countries, and this is no different in the case of the PRC. Obviously, we are slowly but surely losing the power and influence that we have steadily gained through our firm commitment to EU and NATO membership and the transformation of the country into a European-style liberal democracy.

Georgia’s only competitive advantage in this volatile region is its firm European aspirations, its democratisation and its setting an example of democratic success for the region, and I do not mean just the post-Soviet space. This is what makes transit through Georgia attractive and an obvious choice from Russia or Iran. We seem to be losing this competitive advantage.

Civil.ge: And finally, how would you comment to the today’s announcement by the Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development Levan Davitashvili who revealed that one of the two finalists in the Anaklia Deep Sea Port private partnership selection competition is a Chinese-Singaporean consortium, without naming it though?

The Sino-Singaporean consortium, or even the Swiss-Luxembourg consortium, does not tell us much because where the company is registered does not tell us much about it. The biggest problem at the moment is that the information is completely classified. There is no reason why the government should not publish a list of companies interested in the bid, or why it should talk to citizens in riddles, but unfortunately this has become a very common practice. In the meantime, it prevents us from doing due diligence, and until that happens, there should be public scrutiny.

LInk: ?

Interview | “Government’s goal is to sell increased Sino-Georgian cooperation as a counterbalance to its total failure on the Western front”

Government’s goal is to sell increased Sino-Georgian cooperation as a counterbalance to its total failure on the Western front. Read More »

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