Civicidea

On June 9, Georgia and China elevated their bilateral relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, marking a new phase following the Strategic Partnership agreement signed in July 2023.

The announcement was made during an exchange of congratulatory messages between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Georgian President Kavelashvili on the 34th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Xi stated that upgrading relations “will open up new prospects”, write “a new chapter in the traditional friendship” of the countries, “inject strong momentum” into bilateral cooperation, and “create benefits” for the peoples of the two countries.

On his behalf, Kavelashvili expressed his belief in the partnership, which, according to him, “will create more opportunities for cooperation”, “bring greater benefits,” and strengthen “the bonds of friendship” between the peoples of the two countries.

Later that day, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced the signing of the document during a press briefing held at the Government Administration. According to him, relations with China are a matter that “deserves” a dedicated governmental briefing:

“This milestone warrants its own dedicated government briefing, as today is a highly significant day. As you know, roughly three years ago, Georgia and China established a strategic partnership agreement. We are now transitioning to the next phase: a comprehensive strategic partnership. Over the past three years, we have made great progress in our bilateral relations, strengthening both our political and economic connections, which has translated into tangible actions.”

Kobakhidze referred to the visa-free regime, direct flights, and economic-trade relations as concrete and “tangible” results of bilateral cooperation. However, despite the government’s portrayal of these developments as a win-win outcome, available evidence points to a more imbalanced relationship.

An assessment by Civic IDEA of the three years following the Strategic Partnership agreement indicates:

• Bilateral trade is dominated by China, with Chinese products flowing into the Georgian market and a significantly increased trade imbalance.
• Chinese investments remain limited, lagging behind those of Georgia’s Western partners as well as other non-Western actors such as Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Japan in 2024.

At the same time, the domestic footprint of Chinese engagement is becoming more visible. This includes the expansion of Chinese companies in the infrastructure sector, increasing involvement in renewable energy projects, and broader soft power influence.

In this context, upgrading relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership appears to be a political decision rather than a reflection of substantial improvements in the qualitative aspects of bilateral cooperation.

The broader political framing of the decision was evident in Kobakhidze’s remarks. He opened the briefing with criticism of opposition groups and dismissed allegations of democratic backsliding. He referred to the Georgian Dream’s “Honorary Chairman” and “member of the Political Council” as a grandmaster of politics, and noted that he often relies on his advice “when it comes to issues of key importance for the country.” Such issues evidently include foreign policy orientation.

The announcement comes at a sensitive geopolitical moment. On June 8, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill, the “Countering China’s Control of the Caucasus Act”, which, if adopted by the Senate, will require the Department of State to submit a “classified report” to Congress on “the penetration of Russian and Chinese intelligence elements and their assets in Georgia.”

The bill was introduced by Republican Representative Joe Wilson. Following the announcement of the upgraded partnership, Kobakhidze criticized the move, describing him as a “completely unserious person”, who, according to him, “nobody takes seriously”, “even in his own country.” Kobakhidze claimed that President Trump “makes every effort” to deepen political and economic ties with China. In this context, he argued that Joe Wilson’s allegations of negative Chinese influence in the South Caucasus are “completely unserious and do not merit any special comment.”

However, such comparisons overlook structural differences. Maintaining relations between major powers such as the United States and China serves broader strategic and global interests. In contrast, for a small state like Georgia, existing patterns of engagement already demonstrate vulnerabilities to influence from an authoritarian system with coordinated political and economic instruments.

In this light, the transition to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China raises legitimate concerns regarding Georgia’s democratic trajectory and its pro-Western foreign policy orientation.