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A new phase of the trade war: China’s response to US tariffs

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China imposed new tariffs on goods imported from the United States on February 4. This is a response to the additional 10% tariffs imposed by the United States on the same day, which will apply to all Chinese goods imported into the United States.

Trump, both during the election campaign and since his inauguration, has accused Beijing of not taking the necessary and sufficient measures to stop the growing flow of illegal drugs into the United States. Accordingly, the additional tariffs are also a kind of punitive measure against China.

China’s Ministry of Finance announced shortly after the US tariffs went into effect that it would impose an additional 15% tariff on US coal and liquefied natural gas, and a 10% tariff on crude oil, farm equipment, and small trucks, as well as large sedans imported into China from the US. The additional 10% tariff could also apply to Elon Musk’s Cybertrucks, which Tesla produces.

The tariffs will take effect on February 10, but U.S. crude oil prices fell 2% shortly after the announcement.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in the first 11 months of 2024, compared with the same period the previous year, China’s imports of U.S. crude oil fell by 52% or about 230,540 barrels of oil per day.

For the full year, U.S. crude accounted for 1.7% of China’s total imports, or about $6 billion, down from 2.5% in 2023, according to Chinese customs data.

Mia Geng, an analyst at FGE, stated that when China imposed 25% tariffs on U.S. crude during Trump’s first term in office, it stopped buying about 300,000 to 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day and used West African and Asian supplies as alternatives.

In addition, China has targeted American businesses, including Google, Calvin Klein and others. China’s Ministry of Commerce said it had already added PVH (PVH.N), a holding company that owns brands such as Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, and U.S. biotechnology firm Illumina, to a list of “unreliable entities.” The ministry said the two companies had taken discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises and had infringed on the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies. China could impose fines or other sanctions on entities or companies on the list, including suspending or freezing trade and revoking work permits for foreign personnel.

Additionally, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said Google is suspected of violating the country’s antimonopoly laws and has already launched an investigation into the company. Google’s products, such as its search engine, are blocked in China, although it works with local partners, such as advertising companies. 

Besides  China, the newly elected president of the United States has also imposed additional sanctions on Canada and Mexico. The Canadian prime minister announced a 25% retaliatory tariff on American goods on February 1, warning the American people that they would have to pay for Trump’s actions. After that, Trump temporarily suspended his decision and gave Canada and Mexico 30 days to eliminate criminal activities along the border.

China has not been given a similar opportunity, although according to Trump’s press secretary, the 47th President of the United States is planning a phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week in order for the world’s two largest economies to reach some kind of agreement before a new trade war becomes inevitable.

A new phase of the trade war: China’s response to US tariffs Read More »

GD’s New Legislation Tightens Grip on Dissent and Accelerates Dictatorship

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The Georgian Dream (GD) party has unveiled yet another wave of legislative changes designed to tighten its grip on power, ramping up penalties for a variety of offenses—many of which directly target protesters, critics, and political dissenters. Among the most striking changes:

  • harsher punishment for “insulting officials,”
  • a new criminal offense for a public insult on politicians and other high-ranking officials,
  • the transformation of public calls for “violence” from an administrative violation into a felony punishable by up to three years in prison,
  • increase in administrative detention term from 15 to 60 days,
  • prohibition of protest in any building without prior consent of an owner (it will include universities, theaters, and most of the large public spaces).

These amendments were announced on February 3 by GD parliamentary majority leader Mamuka Mdinaradze following a political council meeting and they were approved by first reading by the parliamentary committees the same day. In his usual combative rhetoric, Mdinaradze framed the crackdown as a necessary response to what he called the ongoing efforts of “Deep State agents” to overthrow the government. He declared that the ruling party requires “the appropriate tools and means to govern the country” and to “serve the citizens.” In reality, these measures seem aimed at silencing dissent and literally curbing freedom of speech rather than addressing any genuine threats to governance.

Mdinaradze clarified that this is just the beginning: “The process will continue until the imposed norms are completely replaced by the adoption of norms necessary for the proper functioning and independence of the state.”

The New Rules of Repression

The proposed legislation includes an array of new restrictions and harsher penalties:

  1. No more spontaneous protests: Holding indoor rallies without prior permission from the building owner will be explicitly prohibited. This is particularly significant given that many universities, theaters, and public institutions are state-owned—effectively banning protests on those premises. Understanding the context, universities have been on top of the protests in Georgia since 1988.
  2. Steeper penalties for dissent: Administrative offenses such as petty hooliganism, disobeying police orders, vandalism, and blocking court entrances will now carry increased fines and detention periods.
  3. Extended administrative detention: The maximum period for administrative detention will skyrocket from 15 to 60 days. Understanding the context, Georgia was constantly criticized by international human rights institutions for long administrative detention periods (used to be 90 days long), and it was the Georgian Dream coalition government that brought it down to 15 days years back.
  4. Criminalizing speech: Insulting a public official in connection with their work will become a new administrative offense, giving authorities yet another tool to silence criticism. Obviously, there is no definition or framework for an insult. Under current Georgian reality, anything, including a cynical Facebook post, will qualify. 
  5. Jail time for speech-related crimes: Public calls on disobedience to law enforcement officials, refusal to obey the law, and calls on “violence,” previously met with fines, will now lead to imprisonment of up to three years. And again, there is no framework or definition for “calls of violence.”
  6. Crackdown on resistance to police: Resisting, threatening, or using violence against law enforcement will now be classified as a “major crime” punishable up to ten years of imprisonment.
  7. Harsher punishment for harming police: New aggravating circumstances will be introduced for attacking police officers, state authorities, or their family members. Again, for the context, arrests against activists were always marked by the heavy use of this particular law. We have a handful of case laws where “harming policeman” is defined by the court based on the testimony from the policeman: “I felt pain in my cheek”. Write now: a journalist in pretrial detention is waiting for a five-year sentence strictly for those words said by a policeman during testimony.  
  8. Criminalizing vague ‘threats’: A new criminal code amendment will punish threats of attack, incitement or violence against political and state officials, providing broad leeway for interpretation and potential abuse.

What This Means for Georgia

The only tool the government is left with is the power of force. They solely and heavily rely on repressive power. There is no soft power left, no arguments or convincing. The mood of dissent is increasing, and the number of those protesting magnifies every day. Georgia has been on daily protests for over two months now, and there is no sign that it will change without the government freeing political prisoners and calling for new elections.

So, Georgian Dream decided to make peaceful protests riskier as a deterrence. GD grants itself sweeping new powers to detain demonstrators, silence critics, and police online discourse massively. Students protesting in universities? Banned. Actors speaking out in theaters? Potentially criminalized. Calling a regime official a name on social media? That, too, will soon be grounds for punishment.

These measures announced just one day after peaceful demonstrations on February 2, make it clear that GD is not simply reacting to threats—it is preemptively rewriting the rulebook to eliminate any kind of resistant speech. GD’s ominous warning that “there will be a continuation” suggests that this is only the first phase of an escalating crackdown.

In essence, GD is laying the legal foundation for something much bigger: a system in which opposition is discouraged and criminalized.

GD’s New Legislation Tightens Grip on Dissent and Accelerates Dictatorship Read More »

Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico

Newswire / /

The US President, Donald Trump, has started to implement previously announced reforms of economic policies and has imposed tariffs on China, as well as Canada and Mexico. He signed the decision on Saturday, February 1st.

According to the statement made by the Trump administration, tariffs aim to reduce the flow of narcotics and undocumented immigrants in the US. The president himself has published a post on social media, reading that the tariffs were necessary to “protect Americans”.

More specifically, the new regulations include a 25% rise in tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China. Regarding China, the White House statement talks about the dangers of Fentanyl – according to it, Chinese officials could not stop the flow of said drugs to criminal cartels. Additionally, they could not uproot money laundering from transnational criminal organizations.

Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the government of said country “firmly deplores and opposes this move [made by Donald Trump] and will take necessary countermeasures to defend its legitimate rights and interests.” Aside from this, the Ministry highlights that China started to regulate Fentanyl in 2019 and was acting in cooperation with the US to counter the negative effects of the narcotics.

Furthermore, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce also replied to the statement and announced a complaint that it is planning to file with the World Trading Organization (WTO).

As for Canada and Mexico, both countries have decided to impose tariffs on the US themselves as a countermeasure.

Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico Read More »

Anaklia Deepwater Port’s Elusive Investor

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The Anaklia Deepwater Port project, long touted by the Georgian Dream as a flagship endeavor, remains shrouded in ambiguity. Despite persistent assurances from the government, details regarding the selection of a private investor continue to elude the public.

On January 20, 2025, Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development Levan Davitashvili confirmed that construction work has officially commenced, with negotiations with a private investor also underway. According to Davitashvili, the project’s original Chinese-Singaporean consortium is now being expanded, with new players joining the ranks. Further information on this development is expected to be released in February. He also announced that April would mark the deadline for the consortium to submit an updated proposal.

Key milestones to note:

  • February: The public will be informed about the ongoing negotiations, including details about the new consortium members.
  • April: The Sino-Singaporean consortium aims to finalize and submit an updated proposal.

However, past promises to keep the public informed have been repeatedly postponed. Last year, Davitashvili made several commitments about the project’s progress:

  • May 29, 2024: The Chinese-Singaporean consortium was announced as the preferred bidder, with Davitashvili stating the consortium would be officially named winner within days. Nearly eight months later, negotiations remain ongoing.
  • October 8, 2024: The minister promised a public presentation of the project’s progress in the “coming days,” citing intense negotiations with the investor that would soon conclude. Four months later, this much-anticipated presentation has yet to materialize.

In addition to the ongoing investor negotiations, questions loom over the expansion of the Chinese-Singaporean consortium. As reported in our previous analysis, the two known members of the consortium—China Communications Construction Company Limited and China Harbour Investment Pte. Ltd—carry a reputation for controversy on the global stage. Given the Georgian Dream’s tendency to overlook due diligence when selecting Chinese firms for infrastructure projects, the addition of new players to the consortium raises legitimate concerns about the project’s viability and potential risks.

Minister Davitashvili’s statement was soon followed by a declaration from Georgian Dream representative Irakli Kobakhidze, who noted that the agreement with the Chinese-Singaporean consortium had entered an “intensive phase,” with consortium representatives currently in Georgia for talks. However, as Davitashvili’s earlier statement indicated, the investor selection process will likely continue until at least April 2025.

The Anaklia project has been a favorite talking point for the Georgian Dream, touted as a testament to the government’s economic success—particularly during election cycles. After the elections, the rhetoric has remained unchanged, with continued references to the port’s potential to drive economic development. Notably, the 2025 state budget allocates 150 million GEL to the project. However, the lack of concrete progress and persistent delays in selecting a private investor leave many questioning whether this project will ever come to fruition.

Why the Delays?

The official reason behind the year-long delay in finalizing a private investor remains unclear. However, several factors likely contribute to the extended timeline:

  1. Ownership Issues with Consortium Member: The controlling stake in China Communications Construction Company Limited (a member of the Sino-Singaporean consortium) is held by the state-owned China Communications Construction Group. According to the tender’s exclusion clauses, companies in which the state holds more than 30% of the shares are ineligible to participate in the selection process. This potential violation likely posed a significant obstacle during negotiations, prompting the inclusion of additional partners to ensure compliance.
  2. Financial Guarantee Concerns: HSBC Bank was initially listed as the financial guarantor for the consortium, but doubts persist regarding the bank’s involvement. If HSBC is not providing the promised financial guarantee, it would explain delays in finalizing the agreement.
  3. Political Sensitivities: The current political climate in Georgia, shaped by the Georgian Dream’s increasingly anti-Western stance, presents another challenge. Announcing a Chinese-Singaporean consortium as the private partner for the Anaklia project could provoke public backlash, potentially escalating tensions. The government may be delaying progress to avoid further public unrest.

In sum, while the promises surrounding the Anaklia Deepwater Port project continue to multiply, the reality is far less clear. With crucial negotiations dragging on and the specter of political and financial complications looming large, one has to wonder whether this much-heralded infrastructure project will ever leave the drawing board.

Anaklia Deepwater Port’s Elusive Investor Read More »

Secretary of State Rubio reaffirms U.S. Commitment to the Philippines in Discussion on China’s ‘Dangerous’ Actions

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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a discussion on Wednesday with his Philippine counterpart, focusing on China’s “dangerous and destabilizing actions in the South China Sea.” Rubio emphasized the “ironclad” U.S. defense commitment to the Philippines during their exchange.

According to a statement from the U.S. State Department, Rubio highlighted that China’s actions “undermine regional peace and stability and are inconsistent with international law” during his conversation with Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo.

Rubio assured Manalo of the U.S. ‘ steadfast obligations under the Mutual Defense Treaty and explored avenues to enhance security cooperation, strengthen economic ties, and deepen regional partnerships.

In recent years, the Philippines has encountered repeated maritime disputes with China, particularly concerning contested areas in the South China Sea that lie within Manila’s exclusive economic zone.

Rubio’s remarks followed his meeting with officials from Australia, India, and Japan as part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (The Quad), a China-focused coalition. This meeting, held the day after President Donald Trump resumed office, underscored a unified commitment to addressing Beijing’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.

The Quad members and the Philippines share concerns about China’s expanding influence, with analysts noting that Tuesday’s meeting aimed to demonstrate continuity in the Indo-Pacific and reaffirm that countering Beijing would remain a key focus for Trump.

China, through its foreign ministry, has described its actions in the South China Sea as “reasonable, lawful, and beyond reproach.” Spokesperson Mao Ning asserted that the U.S. was “not a party” to the disputes and had “no right to intervene” in maritime issues involving China and the Philippines. She further stated, “Military cooperation between the U.S. and the Philippines should not undermine China’s sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea, nor should it be used to endorse the illegal claims of the Philippines.”

The Philippine defense department, in a separate statement, noted that the country was among the first to engage with the new U.S. administration on critical security issues. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro met with U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz at the White House on Thursday, reaffirming the enduring alliance between the two nations.

Shortly before Trump’s inauguration, the Philippines and the U.S. conducted their fifth round of joint maritime drills in the South China Sea since initiating such activities in 2023.

According to Reuters, under Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., security cooperation with the U.S. has significantly increased. The Marcos administration has strengthened ties with Washington, permitting the expansion of U.S. access to military bases in the Philippines, including facilities positioned near Taiwan, a democratically governed island claimed by China.

Secretary of State Rubio reaffirms U.S. Commitment to the Philippines in Discussion on China’s ‘Dangerous’ Actions Read More »

New Challenge to China: Trump’s Plan to Reclaim the Panama Canal

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The 47th President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, spoke about his foreign policy plans in his inauguration speech and promised to return the Panama Canal to the United States.

In his speech, Trump noted that the Panama Canal was built by the US in the 1900s, and was eventually given to Panama in 1977 under a treaty that guaranteed the canal’s neutrality, but that it was a “foolish gift” and should never have been made.

Trump has accused Panama of breaking conditions of the 1999 treaty, that handed the strategic waterway to Panama. In addition, according to the newly elected president of the USA, Panama has completely transferred the operation of the canal to China. “First of all, China controls the Panama Canal. We did not hand it over to China. We gave the canal to Panama, and now we are taking it back“, – said Trump.

The Panama Canal is one of the most important trade routes of the United States. About 5% of global maritime trade passes through the 51-mile-long Panama Canal. Also, thanks to the Panama Canal, about 40% of all US container ships pass through the waters of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Therefore, it has strategic importance for the USA.

Trump also emphasized that American ships have to pay extremely high taxes and are treated unfairly in every way, including the US Navy.

Last week, Marco Rubio, Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, told the Senate that Trump’s concerns about this issue were very legitimate because Chinese companies control both ends of the Panama Canal, and if a conflict were to arise, the Chinese could easily demand the closure of the Panama Canal and do not let the United States go through it. This is a big challenge for both economic and national defense and security. 

Hong Kong’s Hutchison Whampoa operates two ports – Balboa Port, which operates on the Pacific side, and Cristobal Port, which operates on the Atlantic side.

President of Panama Jose Raul Molino responded to Trump’s statement by completely denying the accusation. In a post published on X, Mulino also touched on historical narratives, noting that the transfer of control of the canal to Panama under the 1977 agreement was not a gift but the result of a generational struggle that culminated in 1999. He also noted: “There is not a single nation in the world that interferes with our administration.” He promised that Trump would not be able to implement his plan and that the main trade route would remain in the hands of Panama.

New Challenge to China: Trump’s Plan to Reclaim the Panama Canal Read More »

Who will attend Donald Trump’s inauguration from China?

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Donald Trump invited the president of China, Xi Jinping, to the Inauguration ceremony on January 20th. However, according to the statement made by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the Vice President of China, Han Zheng, will be the one attending the ceremony. The statement also underlines the readiness to work with the US government to “pursue stable, healthy and sustainable China-US relations.”

Notably, Trump is the first US president to invite world leaders to the Inauguration ceremony. Despite Xi Jinping’s non-attendance, it is believed that sending the Vice President is symbolic since this action will avoid bruising Trump’s ego.

It is interesting that a phone call took place between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on January 17th. According to the elected US president, they talked about trade, fentanyl, and  TikTok, as well as other topics, and have agreed to do everything to make the world a “peaceful and safe” place. The Foreign Ministry of China also commented on the dialogue, in which Xi mentioned that two-sided talks are important for both sides and hopes for a good start to USA-China relations during Trump’s second term.

Aside from the above-mentioned, Han Zheng used the Inauguration visit to meet the close circle of Donald Trump – including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, with whom he discussed the trade between the US and China and called on American companies to promote it.  Apart from this, the Chinese Vice President met with the future US Vice President, JD Vance. They discussed topics such as trade and regional security. According to the Chinese state media, Xinhua, Han Zheng talked about the differences between the two states as well but highlighted the space for cooperation, too.

Who will attend Donald Trump’s inauguration from China? Read More »

Chinese hackers’ attack on the computer of the U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen

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US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s computer was breached, with unclassified files accessed as part of a broader cyberattack on the department attributed to Chinese state-sponsored hackers, according to two individuals familiar with the situation.

The attackers also infiltrated the computers of two of Yellen’s deputies, Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo and Acting Under Secretary Brad Smith, said the sources, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the information. According to one of the sources, fewer than 50 files were accessed on Yellen’s device.

The hackers appeared to concentrate on the Treasury’s functions related to sanctions, intelligence, and international affairs. However, they did not gain access to the department’s email or classified systems, according to a Treasury report previously reviewed by Bloomberg News.

In addition to breaching the computers of top Treasury officials, the hackers infiltrated more than 400 laptop and desktop devices. They obtained usernames, passwords, and over 3,000 files stored on unclassified personal devices, the report reveals.

The intruders also accessed “law enforcement sensitive” information and materials related to investigations by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., which evaluates the national security risks of certain foreign investments, according to the Treasury report.

BeyondTrust Corp., a software contractor, notified the Treasury on December 8 that hackers had exploited its networks to compromise the department. Treasury then sought assistance from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the FBI, and other intelligence agencies.

Investigators attributed the breach to a Chinese state-sponsored group known in cybersecurity circles as Silk Typhoon or UNC5221.

Chinese officials have consistently denied U.S. accusations of state-sponsored hacking. Last month, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry dismissed claims that the government was responsible for the Treasury breach as “unwarranted and groundless.”

“China has always opposed all forms of hacker attacks,” Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, said at the time.

In 2023, China was also accused of breaching the email accounts of key U.S. government officials, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.

Chinese hackers’ attack on the computer of the U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Read More »

Guide to Sustainable Policies of Major Financial Institutions

Research / /

The guideline, developed by Civic IDEA with the support of CAPS Unlock, provides an in-depth overview of the environmental and social policies adopted by major international financial institutions (IFIs) to promote responsible and sustainable development. It covers the frameworks established by the following IFIs:

World Bank (WB) Asian Development Bank (ADB) European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) European Investment Bank (EIB) Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)

The guidebook outlines the policies these institutions require borrowers to follow, ensuring that projects minimize negative impacts on communities and the environment. It emphasizes sustainability by mandating comprehensive risk assessments and the implementation of safeguards to address issues such as biodiversity loss, pollution, and social disruption. A core focus is placed on transparency, stakeholder engagement, and responsible project management throughout the entire development process.

Guide to Sustainable Policies of Major Financial Institutions Read More »

US Investigation Finds China Using “Unfair” Practices In the Maritime Sector; What Could Happen Next?

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The Biden administration has determined that China employs “unfair policies and practices” to dominate the global shipbuilding, logistics, and maritime sectors, according to three sources familiar with the findings of a months-long trade investigation.

The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), Katherine Tai, initiated the investigation in April 2024 following a petition from the United Steelworkers and four other U.S. unions. The probe was conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the U.S. to impose penalties on foreign nations engaging in practices deemed “unjustifiable,” “unreasonable,” or detrimental to U.S. commerce.

Investigators found that China specifically targeted the shipbuilding and maritime sectors for global dominance. They concluded that the country utilized “financial support, barriers for foreign firms, forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and procurement policies” to bolster its competitive edge, according to one source who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The report also highlighted that Beijing “severely and artificially suppressed China’s labor costs in the maritime, shipbuilding, and logistics sectors,” the source added.

Although the findings have not been officially confirmed or denied by U.S. officials, they come at a time of growing competition between the two largest economies and as Washington seeks to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing and supply chains by rallying allied nations.

Shipyards in Asia, including those in South Korea and Japan, may see some benefits if penalties are imposed on China’s shipbuilders. However, analysts and a senior executive from a major Chinese shipbuilding firm noted that China’s shipbuilding industry, due to its sheer scale and cost advantages, remains robust enough to withstand such measures in the short term. 

According to the data cited by the US probe, China’s share of global shipbuilding has expanded to over 50% in 2023.

“China’s shipbuilders have overtaken the Japanese and the Koreans and everyone under the sun,” said James Chin, a professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania.

Chin added that Chinese shipbuilders are “safe in the near term – up to roughly 24 months – from any measures that the U.S. might take.”

US Investigation Finds China Using “Unfair” Practices In the Maritime Sector; What Could Happen Next? Read More »

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