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“Examining the Environmental and Social Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative: Civic IDEA Leads Panel at CITW 2024 Summit”

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On November 24, Ani Kintsurashvili, Senior Researcher at Civic IDEA, alongside Tinatin Khidasheli, Chairwoman of Civic IDEA, led a panel discussion titled “Lessons Learned from the BRI: Examining Environmental Hazards and Regulatory Shortcomings” at the CITW 2024 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa. 

The panel examined environmental and social challenges from Chinese BRI projects in Africa and the South Caucasus. The speakers highlighted that since the launch of the BRI, Chinese investments have attracted significant global attention, increasingly burdening many developing states worldwide and sparking controversies related to environmental concerns, and debt sustainability. 

The session also emphasized the risks to communities, ecosystems and biodiversity and emphasize the need for stronger monitoring, regulatory frameworks, due diligence, and improved information sharing to mitigate spillover effects.

Tap to see the presentation:

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Trump’s Tariff Gambit: Steep Taxes on China, Mexico, and Canada to Combat Immigration and Drug Crisis

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Donald Trump has announced that he will impose steep tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada on his first day back in the White House. He said these steps are necessary to get these countries to take more serious measures against illegal immigration and drug trafficking into the United States. 

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump detailed his plans, stating that he would sign an executive order on January 20 imposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada. Following one more post, Donald Trump attacked China for failing to act on promises to impose the death penalty on those trafficking fentanyl, a drug he claims is entering the U.S. in unprecedented amounts, mostly via Mexico. To take care of this problem, he announced plans to put an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports until the flow of drugs into the U.S. is stopped. Trump framed this as a necessary measure to combat the crisis and urged attention to the matter.

In response to Trump’s announcement of additional tariffs on Chinese goods, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, stated that economic cooperation between China and the U.S. is mutually beneficial, warning that “no one will win a trade war or a tariff war.” The Chinese spokesperson pointed to ongoing cooperation between the two nations’ counternarcotics authorities, citing resumed communication since the San Francisco Summit. China, the spokesperson said, has shared updates with the U.S. on its drug enforcement efforts and responded to U.S. requests for information, rejecting claims that China knowingly permits fentanyl-related exports.  

According to Swati Dhingra, a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, any proposed 60% tariffs by Donald Trump on imports from China might have complex implications for the global economy by compressing global inflation, “because goods are cheaper for everybody else.”. Speaking at a London conference, Dhingra explained that Chinese exporters might react to such steep tariffs through price-cutting in alternative markets in their efforts to maintain the volumes of trade, an action which could make goods cheaper worldwide, including in the UK.

However, she qualified that the effect will be variable, pending the reaction of other countries. Should governments retaliate by imposing their own tariffs or protectionist moves, a trade war could spiral out of control, damaging the world economy. Higher inflation may be in store for the U.S. since American consumers bear the tariff cost; however, global prices of those kinds of goods may drop as Chinese exporters adjust to new trade barriers. 

As Trump’s proposals spark debate, the implications of his aggressive trade policies remain uncertain. What is clear is that his return to office would bring a sharp shift in U.S. economic and foreign policy, with tariffs once again taking center stage.

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NATO Leader Urges Businesses to Prepare for Wartime Amid Rising Dependence on China and Russia

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A senior NATO military leader has urged companies to prepare for a possible wartime situation by rethinking their supply chains to reduce pressure from rival countries such as Russia and China. Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, stressed that economic reform is as important as military capability in maintaining national security. 

Speaking at an event organized by the European Policy Institute in Brussels, Bauer explained that deterrence is not limited to military force but includes the ability to maintain critical goods and services in any situation. ”If we can make sure that all necessary services and resources can be provided no matter what, that’s an important part of our prevention,” he said.

He highlighted growing threats, including acts of sabotage and geopolitical pressures that have already tested Europe’s resilience. “We thought we had a deal with Gazprom, but in reality, it was a deal with Vladimir Putin,” Bauer noted, referring to Russia’s use of energy supplies as a tool for political leverage. “The same goes for Chinese-owned infrastructure and goods. When we make deals with Chinese companies, we’re effectively making deals with President Xi Jinping.” 

Bauer warned that the West is overly dependent on China for basic supplies. China currently produces 60% of the world’s rare earth resources and processes 90% of them, materials needed for technology, defense and renewable energy. Furthermore, he noted that many medicinal products, such as sedatives, antibiotics, antibiotics, and antihypertensives, come from China.

“We are naïve to think that the Chinese Communist Party never uses this leverage,” Bauer warned.  

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Civic IDEA’s Senior Researcher Ani Kintsurashvili Leads Panel Discussion on Georgia’s Foreign Policy Challenges in Samarkand

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On November 21-22, the Senior Researcher of Civic IDEA, Ani Kintsurashvili, attended the “Mapping Spheres of Influence” data journalism conference, which was organized by Anhor.uz and held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. 

The event brought together experts and practitioners to explore key issues in data journalism, focusing on the role of reporting in Central Asia, especially in the context of international economic cooperation, as well as the region’s challenges and opportunities. 

During the conference, Ani took the lead in the panel discussion titled “Surviving the New Cold War,” where she shared her insights on the complex foreign policy dynamics facing Georgia. She highlighted the challenges the country faces in navigating its foreign policy, particularly as the ruling party increasingly aligns with Russia and China. Her analysis also contrasted Georgia’s situation with that of the Central Asian nations, providing a broader regional perspective on the shifting geopolitical landscape.

Civic IDEA’s Senior Researcher Ani Kintsurashvili Leads Panel Discussion on Georgia’s Foreign Policy Challenges in Samarkand Read More »

Meeting on Chinese cyber-espionage campaign in the White House

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On November 22nd, the top US telecommunications representatives and National Security officials held a meeting in the White House. The main topic thereof was the Chinese cyber-espionage campaign.

The campaign has great meaning for the sector, seeing as its targets have become the most prominent American political figures, such as newly elected President Donald Trump and vice president JD Vance. Apart from this, according to the US, China-affiliated hackers accessed data meant for American law enforcement via cyber-attacks on telecom companies.

During the meeting, telecom representatives advised the government on the ways it could ensure protection against such attacks. Additionally, the sides exchanged intelligence on these topics.

According to the FBI, the number of victims of the campaign is fewer than 150, although they believe that the damage was spread to many more people through these victims via text messages and calls.

China denies accusations of this cyber-espionage campaign. Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry speaker made a statement before the above-mentioned meeting took place. On November 14th, he underlined that „[China has] no interest in interfering in other countries’ internal affairs through cyberspace and oppose[s] spreading China-related disinformation out of a political agenda“. State-affiliated media platform Global Times talks about the experts, who „revealed that the US deliberately fabricates evidence of cyberattacks to tarnish China’s image“. To prove this point, they use factors such as the anonymity of the sources and lack of substantive arguments.

 

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From Wall Street to Commerce Secretary: Howard Lutnick to lead Trump’s Trade and Tariff Strategy

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Donald Trump has named Howard Lutnick, a Wall Street businessman, as the next Secretary of the Department of Commerce. In his announcement, Trump praised Lutnick, the CEO of financial firm Cantor Fitzgerald, as a “dynamic force on Wall Street for more than 30 years” and highlighted his leadership on the administration’s “tariff and trade agenda.” 

Lutnick’s nomination follows months of speculation. Initially considered for Treasury Secretary, he faced competition from hedge fund manager Scott Bessent. His appointment to Commerce also came as a surprise, beating out Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s former U.S. Trade Representative, and Linda McMahon, the former head of the Small Business Administration. Both Lighthizer and McMahon were recently informed that Lutnick was Trump’s choice to head the Commerce Department.  

The Department of Commerce, while smaller than the Treasury Department, plays a crucial role in areas where business and national security intersect.  The Secretary’s responsibilities include supporting U.S. businesses, negotiating trade agreements, and fostering foreign investment. Beyond its role in the US-China trade and tech war, its responsibilities include patent approvals, publishing economic data, and conducting the US census. The department also investigates anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases, often leading to punitive tariffs designed to protect domestic industries.

Fearing that Beijing could exploit American technology to enhance its military capabilities, both the Trump and Biden administrations have aggressively used the Commerce Department’s authority to regulate the flow of U.S. and foreign technologies to China. This effort has particularly focused on semiconductors and the equipment used to manufacture them. Over the past two years, the U.S. has implemented sweeping export controls on advanced chips and chipmaking tools, curtailing China’s access to cutting-edge artificial intelligence technologies and next-generation semiconductor production equipment.

During Trump’s first term, former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was a central figure in the U.S.-China trade war and a vocal advocate for higher tariffs—an agenda Lutnick has also embraced. Lutnick has not been outspoken about China compared to other figures in the administration. However, he is a staunch advocate for tariffs, particularly targeting China. Trump’s campaign pledge to impose a 60% tariff on goods from China and a 10% tariff on goods from other countries aligns closely with Lutnick’s views.  In a recent podcast interview, Lutnick emphasized his support for revenue-driven trade policies, saying, “Don’t tax our people. Make money instead. Put tariffs on China and make $400 billion.”

The next Commerce Secretary will be tasked with enforcing a range of regulations aimed at restricting China’s technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence and semiconductors. This includes efforts to keep major Chinese firms, such as Huawei Technologies and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), several steps behind their global competitors in key tech sectors. 

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Xi asks Germany to help With EU tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles 

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Chinese President Xi Jinping urged German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday to facilitate the resolution of the EU’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, as reported by state television CCTV.

During their meeting on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Xi expressed China’s readiness to collaborate with Germany to strengthen their strategic partnership. He then highlighted the issue of EU tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, which has heightened the risk of a trade conflict between Beijing and the bloc.

The EU green lit significant tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles after receiving broad support from member states. These tariffs are expected to increase from the current 10% to as much as 45% over the next five years.The European Commission, which conducted the vote, emphasized that the EU and China would “work hard to explore an alternative solution” to the tariffs. In response, China’s Commerce Ministry denounced the decision as “unfair” and “unreasonable,” but acknowledged the possibility of resolving the issue through negotiations.

EU member states were divided on imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Germany, whose automotive industry relies heavily on exports to China, opposed the tariffs. Many EU members abstained from the vote. However, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland supported the import taxes. The proposal for tariffs could only have been blocked if a qualified majority of 15 member states had voted against it.

The dispute has sparked concerns among industry groups outside the automotive sector about potential retaliatory tariffs from China. A trade body representing the French cognac industry criticized the French authorities, stating they “have abandoned us.” They added, “We do not understand why our sector is being sacrificed in this way.” 

Xi stated, “It is hoped that Europe and China will resolve the issue of electric vehicles through dialogue and negotiation as soon as possible, and the German side is willing to make active efforts in this regard,” according to a readout from Chinese state news agency Xinhua.

A spokesperson for the German government mentioned that Scholz’s meeting with Xi lasted 30 minutes, during which the chancellor also discussed geopolitical issues, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Xi’s South America tour commenced with his participation at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima, where he inaugurated a Chinese-funded Pacific port. Following the conclusion of the G20 summit on Tuesday, Xi is scheduled to visit Brasilia for a state visit, where he will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and sign several cooperation agreements.

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Hong Kong’s Largest National Security Trial: 47 Pro-Democracy Figures Face Years in Prison”

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Forty-five members of the “Hong Kong 47” have been sentenced to prison terms of four to 10 years in the largest national security trial since Beijing imposed the controversial National Security Law (NSL) in 2020. The group, which includes prominent activists, lawmakers, and campaigners, was prosecuted for conspiracy to commit subversion over their involvement in an unofficial primary election in 2020. 

Legal scholar and activist Benny Tai, accused of masterminding the primary election plan, received the longest sentence of 10 years. The court found Tai’s strategy—intended to secure a pro-democracy legislative majority, block government budgets, and pressure the chief executive to resign—to be a violation of Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, the Basic Law, and an act of subversion under the NSL. The judges stated that Tai’s writings advocating the plan amounted to “advocating for a revolution.” 

Australian-Hong Kong dual national Gordon Ng was sentenced to over seven years after pleading not guilty and being convicted earlier this year. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong expressed “grave concern” over the sentence, criticizing the broad application of the NSL and objecting to the prosecution. The U.S. consulate in Hong Kong strongly condemned the sentencing, stating that the defendants were “aggressively prosecuted and jailed for peacefully participating in normal political activity”. They also called for the immediate release of all political prisoners.

In response, China’s Foreign Ministry accused foreign governments of interfering in Hong Kong’s internal affairs and undermining the rule of law. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Security Minister Chris Tang emphasized that the heavy sentences send a clear message that any action endangering national security will not be tolerated.

Human Rights Watch described the sentences as evidence of Hong Kong's deteriorating civil liberties and judicial independence since the NSL’s implementation. Critics, including academics, say the trial demonstrates Beijing’s efforts to suppress dissent and re-educate the population on prioritizing national security. 

“The pro-democracy movement has been greatly weakened, with self-censorship becoming the norm,” said Stephan Ortmann, a political science professor. Activists report feeling the chilling effect firsthand. Emily Lau, former Democratic Party chair, shared that even informal gatherings are now fraught with fear of arrest. “That’s how stressful things are,” she said, though she vowed the fight for democracy would continue “peacefully and legally.”

The city’s current legislature, which the 47 originally sought to control, is now composed entirely of pro-Beijing loyalists. Citizens can only vote for 20 out of the 90 members of the Legislative Council in direct elections. A pro-Beijing group elects 40 members, giving them a majority, while the remaining members are chosen by professional groups, most of which lean pro-Beijing. Additionally, all lawmakers undergo a “patriotism” vetting process before they can stand for election. 

The sentencing on Tuesday highlights the dramatic transformation of Hong Kong, once known for its vibrant democracy movement, into a city where opposition voices are silenced or forced into exile. 

The U.S. government, along with several Western nations and human rights organizations, has argued that the law has been used to suppress peaceful dissent. 

During his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Chinese and Hong Kong officials in response to the crackdown and declared that Hong Kong no longer enjoyed a high level of autonomy from China. After winning re-election earlier this month, Trump announced a proposed cabinet filled with several hardliners on China, which will put China in a rather tense situation.

 

 

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Xi Jinping’s diplomatic tour in Latin America

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On November 14 th, the president of China, Xi Jinping, departed on a nine-day Latin American diplomatic tour, which, according to analysts, is aimed at expanding the country’s influence in the region. 

During said visit, Xi Jinping attended the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit and had a meeting with the president of the US, Joe Biden. The main subject of the discussion between presidents was the newly elected American president, Donald Trump. Xi stated that the goal of a “stable, healthy, and sustainable China-U.S. relationship” remains the same, and Beijing is ready to work with the new government – to uphold communication and deepen cooperation. 

Aside from the above-mentioned, some of the important talking points were cybersecurity, trade, Taiwan, and Russia. The leaders of these countries agreed upon the control of nuclear weapons and declared that the decisions thereon should be made by human beings and not artificial intelligence. Additionally, Xi Jinping and Joe Biden expressed concerns over the development of relations between Russia and Northern Korea (DPRK) and the deployment of troops by DPRK in Ukraine. According to the National Security Advisor of the United States, Jake Sullivan, President Biden appealed to China to use its influence and prevent the NPRK from escalating the situation in Ukraine with such deployments in the future. 

Notably, the leaders had a strict talk about Taiwan – Biden called on China to suspend its “destabilizing” military activities near the island. However, Xi placed the “Taiwan Independence separatist activities” at fault.

Moreover, one of the most crucial aims of Xi Jinping’s tour in Southern America is the inauguration of a Chinese-funded port in Peru. The port will be the biggest deep-water port on the continent and will reduce the time for transportation between the region and China. Importantly, in March 2024, the discussions about the Peruvian port took place at the Georgian Business Association with the ambassador of the Republic of Peru. According to the latter, the new port connecting Asia and Southern America will create new possibilities for deepening the trade relations with Georgia. 

Despite the belief that the port will be economically beneficial to Southern America and China, especially when China has difficulties with Europe and the new tariff system announced by Donald Trump, the US underlines that China could use the port for military intelligence activities. Apart from this, one of the main US diplomats in the region, Brian Nichols, called on the Latin American countries and their nations to use caution when dealing with Chinese investments. State-backed Chinese publication Global Times published an article about the practical use of the port and stated that it would not be a „weapon for geopolitical competition.“ Further, the article mentions the American concerns about the military use thereof as a „smear. “

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China’s new challenge in the UN – Elise Stefanik

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Elise Stefanik (R-New York), a prominent critic of China, is expected to be named as Donald Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations—one of the administration’s earliest major appointments. If confirmed by the Senate, Stefanik will represent the U.S. in a global body where China, as a permanent member of the Security Council, has been steadily increasing its influence on key international issues. Analysts suggest that Beijing is unlikely to welcome the anti-China stance of Trump’s prospective foreign policy team but may choose to bypass more hawkish officials by engaging with individuals in Trump’s orbit who have economic ties to China. 

“The Chinese often leverage figures close to Trump with significant economic connections to China to facilitate back-channel diplomacy,” noted Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. This dynamic could lead to tension between Trump’s stated goals and the harder-line China positions of his proposed Cabinet members. 

For example, Trump is reportedly considering reversing the ban on TikTok, the Chinese-owned social media platform, as part of a campaign promise. This potential policy shift could conflict with the views of figures like Stefanik, who has strongly supported banning TikTok due to concerns over Beijing’s potential use of the app for surveillance 

Elise Stefanik, known for her strong stance on holding China accountable for its role in the COVID-19 pandemic, criticized the Chinese Communist Party for withholding critical information about the virus and spreading misinformation, emphasizing the need for accountability in 2020. 

She has mentioned several times, that China is one of the greatest challenges in the 21st century. In 2020, in an interview with the New York Post, she said: “As we think about emerging threats, China is one of the most significant emerging threats that we face, not only in the United States but that we face when we’re partnered with our allies.”

Rep. Elise Stefanik has been a strong critic of China’s trade practices, advocating for the removal of China from U.S. supply chains and critical infrastructure, she has sponsored several hardline bills aimed at countering Chinese influence, including legislation targeting the Chinese drone manufacturer company, DJI. 

The UN’s ambassador role is vital to global cooperation and security. Therefore, the US citizens, as well as the whole world, are patiently waiting for Trump’s final decision and choices.

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